Decreasing cloudiness will occur today after scattered showers and thunderstorms end later this morning. It will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s inland from Lake Michigan. A cold front will move south through the state tonight and usher in a much cooler air mass for Monday and Tuesday.
We have some light rain moving through SW Michigan this morning – .08 inches here in Otsego at 07:00 since midnight. It is a warm 62°.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
This feature has auto location.
(click images to enlarge)
Guidance has been consistent showing the current band of showers and thunderstorms weakening this morning while sagging slowly south. New development later today will occur on the leftover boundary from this convection, but by the time that occurs it should be south of our area, probably near/along I-80.
Actually for the balance of the day we will be in a dry slot of sorts between the boundary slipping through now and the main cold front dropping down through Upr MI. Dry and stable westerly low level flow over wrn lwr MI and lake shadowing should result in plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures this afternoon.
A few of the CAMs suggest the potential of widely scattered diurnal cells developing around Clare, Alma and Mt Pleasant this afternoon in an area of sfc convergence, so small pops needed in this area. Models are not very ambitious with QPF as the sfc cold front slips south through the area tonight and a decent shortwave pivots down from the northwest.
The air mass appears too dry to support much pcpn, especially from I-96 south. However low clouds and drizzle will probably pour into areas north of I-96 behind the cold front late tonight or toward daybreak Monday. Monday and Tuesday`s weather will be dominated by yet another closed upper low which drops into the Eastern Great Lakes Region.
Extensive diurnal cumulus development is likely on Monday and even more so on Tuesday, particularly east of Highway 131 closer to the upper low and cold core aloft. A few showers will also be possible in eastern sections, whereas the lakeshore areas will probably being seeing some sunshine. Highs Tuesday will likely struggle to get out of the 60s where clouds are thick and persist most of the day. .
We are optimistic that Tue night through Thu will be a dry period, although there is still a small chance that a few showers may try to linger around. The upper low affecting the area early in the week will try to move far enough east to keep the cold pool aloft and associated showers east of the area.
It is not out of the realm of possibilities that a wave rotating around it could end up further west and impact the area. We will keep the dry fcst going for now, and adjust later if trends require that. Temps will slowly moderate, with highs mainly in the 70s.
We will see a chance of rain increase a bit Thu night and Fri. This occurs as we see a short wave drop down from the NW out of Canada. This does not look to be a big rain producer as it will not have a good influx of moisture from the Gulf, and will be diving down on the front side of the upper ridge to our west.
We will be starting to transition to a more summer-like pattern on Saturday, and more so beyond the long term. The cold front associated with the Fri short wave will reside just south of the area on Saturday. This should be far enough south to keep the better rain chances south of the state border. This boundary will surge north beyond this long term period as the upper ridge builds over the area. This will bring summer-like warmth to the area starting next Sunday.