Not much to say for today – decided to throw in some U.S. weather history. Friday we had a high of 65° in Otsego which was 15° below normal. I suspect we will continue to see below normal temperatures through mid-month, though we will have some days around 80 mixed in. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be around 5° below normal. This is my kind of weather.
Expect considerable cloudiness today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. These will be mostly this afternoon into the early evening and area associated with a surface trough and upper air disturbance moving through the area. I expect around a tenth of an inch in most areas in southwest Michigan unless you are lucky enough to get one of the storms.
A weak but broad surface highs follows the trough and will be over our area into mid week, moving only slowly to the east. There may be a few showers in the afternoon Monday in the I-69 area otherwise expect dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures will be below normal today into Tuesday then there will be a slow moderating trend.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Today`s issue is the potential for afternoon convection over most of the CWA. Beyond that a large but slow moving surface high moves into the area and does not get east of this area until Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures across the area will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal into Tuesday.
We have a rouge shower heading east just north of I-96 early this morning, numerous mesonet sites have had from .10 to .20 inches of rain as this shower moved through. It should be east of our CWA by 5 AM, I did put this in our grids and it is assoicated with a weak shortwave and is on the cool side of a weak surface trough that extends west to east from near MKG to LAN.
It is that trough, which should largely stay where it is through the day that will be the focus of more showers and a few thunderstorms. There is a jet segment tracking east along the polar jet, which at midnight was over the Dakota`s. The exit left front exit region of that jet comes over our CWA late this morning into early this afternoon.
The combination of the surface trough (winds south southwest south of I-96 and more westerly north of I-96 provides the surface convergence) jet exit region provide the upper dynamics for the convection this afternoon. Model soundings suggest there is enough mid level moisture for this event but the CAPE above the -20c level is marginal.
The equilibrium level for the convection does not even get near the tropopause. There is a deep layered shear, strongest south of I-96. Bottom line is there will be convection around it will not be all that robust. Once that trough moves through we see weak cold advection behind the wave but nothing impressive, that is for sure.
There may be just enough moisture and instability for the area near I-69 to have a few showers Monday afternoon. Beyond that the surface high will keep it cooler than normal and dry through Tuesday. Some patchy fog is possible Tuesday morning. .
The long term portion of the forecast can be summarized by a quiet and mild beginning, then becoming somewhat unsettled later in the week and next weekend. We should see mostly dry conditions from Tuesday night through Wednesday, and this could even last into Thursday.
General long wave troughing will remain over the Eastern CONUS during this time frame. The flow over our area will be somewhat flat. The real warmth and moist air will remain well south of the area, while the stronger jet energy will remain north.
Rain chances will start going up a tad by Thursday, but are not expected to be very high at that time. We will see a front sink south into the area as a wave moves across Ontario. The front may have just enough convergence and moisture pooling to pop off a few showers in the afternoon/early evening hours. Most of the time it will remain dry.
This will last into Friday as the front remains nearby. The best threat of rain looks to arrive next Saturday. We will see energy dive in from Canada and help to buckle the jet to our west. This looks like it will become strong enough that it will be able to draw Gulf moisture northward ahead of the developing system. Rain chances will increase noticeably along with thunder.