First of all some college football scores from yesterday – kudos to the Broncos for the great fight against #4 ranked USC though they lost 49-31 they held tough until the fourth quarter when USC pulled away.
The Spartans (over Bowling Green 35-10) and Wolverines (over the Florida Gators 33-17) won their games easily. Bills Badgers won over Utah 59-10.
Weather-wise we received .06 of an inch of rain last night (before midnight) after a cool morning of 43° we warmed up nicely into the 70’s. For August we ended up with 4.52 inches of rain which brings us to 33.3 inches for the year. (these are all Otsego readings).
Enjoy the next couple days – after Monday the temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60’s (my kind of weather). My new snow blower (used it only twice last year) sits in the back of the shed whining to get out – he will have to wait a couple months (hopefully).
I enjoy spring and fall the most, though winter ranks up there pretty high. All in all this summer has been tolerable with only five 90° days – we did have a lot of 80’s for those of you who enjoy the heat. When we go to the beach with the grand kids I sit in the shade and enjoy a good book. I used to enjoy frolicking and working in the sun but over the past few years I have become heat intolerant.
We get two days of warmer temperatures then much colder temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday. A high pressure system passing off to our south today should allow skies to clear by mid to late morning. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s.
The bridge walk may not be enjoyable as rain and gusty winds are expected on Labor Day.
A strong cold front will cross southwest Michigan Labor Day afternoon. It will be breezy and warm ahead of the front with highs in the lower to mid 80s. A line of thunderstorms should develop near or just south of I-96 and move south and east of the area by evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe south and east of Grand Rapids in the afternoon. We will keep an eye on this…
Temperatures should remain cool through at least mid month with very little rain expected. This should give the corn and soybeans a good chance to dry out before harvest…
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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The biggest issue with this forecast is the potential for strong to severe storms Labor Day afternoon over our SE CWA. I do not expect this to be a major severe event none the less we will have to watching how these storms develop. Otherwise as I have been writing about for at least two weeks now, that large upper trough develops and brings in much colder air, likely the coldest since May, and that will be around most of the rest of the week once the cold front clears the area.
Lake effect rain showers are more than possible starting Tuesday. As for the issue with the strong thunderstorms on Labor Day, we have a digging upper jet with the jet entrance region coming into the area during the afternoon. It is that which will help touch of the convection. There is a 30 to 40 knot low level jet to help the causes and there is also marginal deep layer shear (30 to 35 knots).There is also 2000 to 2500 j/kg of most unstable cape and I would think a fair amount of shine in the warm air ahead of the front prior to the convection developing.
I expect the strongest storms to be south and east of our CWA actually. One other helpful aspect is there is a significant increase the deep layered precipitable water south between I-80 and I-96 during the late afternoon and early evening. This seems to be a good signal for storm development. Beyond that cold air comes in Monday night into Tuesday. We should get into a decent set up for lake effect rain showers by Tuesday afternoon. .
A deep upper trough will move over the Great Lakes Tuesday night before moving east Friday. A few days of cooler than normal temperatures are expected. H8 temps will fall to around 4c during this time and a few lake effect rain showers are possible, especially as short waves rotate through the trough.
Highs in the mid 60s are expected Wednesday through Friday before warming into the 70s Saturday. As temperatures fall to around 40 across the northern cwa Wednesday night and Thursday night, frost would appear to be a possibility in the low lying colder areas.