Air Quality Alert Continues – Chances OF Storms

Air Quality Alert Continues – Chances OF Storms

posted in: Weather Forecast | 17

p120i612The feature image is from the storm rolling over the Mackinac bridge yesterday.  Looking for who took the picture but no credit was given for the image.

To the left is the QPF (rain) total (guess) for this week.

The SPC has us in the marginal risk for storms over the next three days.  Looking at the models I think most of the storms today will be north of Grand Rapids.

A weak cold front will slip down from the north today and stall out over the region tonight through Wednesday. A moist airmass will flow into the region and along this front. This should result in showers and thunderstorms at times. Some of those storms could be strong and contain locally heavy rainfall. Very warm conditions will persist south of this front while closer to seasonable temperatures will exist to the north.

We definitely need the rain – many areas of S.W. lower Michigan have received less than a quarter inch over the past four weeks.


Day One
Day One
Day Two
Day Two
Day Three
Day Three

 

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






Day and Week Planner

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Point Forecasts

Gaylord














Forecast Discussion

(click images to enlarge)

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

A couple of concerns with the forecast include timing of any thunderstorms along with the temperature trends. Models support dropping the surface frontal zone located over northeast Wisconsin into the CWA today into tonight. This feature then meanders over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night before lifting north as a warm front on Wednesday.

This feature has been the focus for the thunderstorms over the past few days. With a tropical airmass pooling along this feature…some risk for locally very heavy rainfall exists. Overall the synoptic support for continued thunderstorm formation along this frontal zone exists through the period. As a result will feature increasing POPs today into tonight and then hold some risk for rain for the remainder of the period.

There is some suggestion of a weak low level jet moving in tonight along this frontal zone…which could focus the thunderstorm development. A marginal risk for severe weather exist into Tuesday. The combination of steeper mid level lapse rates and initially marginal deep layer shear supports this risk. The deep layer shear is advertised to drop off somewhat into Tuesday.

I am not as confident that we will see such warm temperatures as we have seen recently for today into Wednesday. With the front dropping down and stalling over the region…locations to the north will not warm up as much as previously thought. As a result I lowered temperatures for northern zones over the next couple of days. .

LONG TERM…

A fairly active wx pattern is anticipated for mid to late week as a warm front will result in development of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. An approaching cold front will also cause more showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday.

Some of the convection in this time frame could be strong to potentially severe with potential for moderate to strong instability to develop with lift coming from the boundaries and high dew point air in place out ahead of the cold front. The upper level pattern will become zonal and active wx will continue Friday into Saturday with potential for more showers and thunderstorms with weak to moderate instability still present as there will not be much of an airmass change after fropa Thursday. A stronger cold front will focus development of convection Saturday with a cooler and drier airmass expected to finally move in beginning Sunday.


17 on "Air Quality Alert Continues – Chances OF Storms"

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Mark (East Lansing)

We need rain.

Mookie

Records already being set! GR hit 91 yesterday with a super warm low of 71. GR is now +2.6 above average for June and climbing rapidly. A warm start to meteorological summer, indeed.

SlimJim
Yesterday was a record warm minimum. The old record was 70° last set in 2005 the record for today (June 12) is also 70 and also set in 2005. The record highs for today are 96° set in 1901 94° in 1925 and 93° in 1956. While not foretasted I… Read more »
SlimJim
With yesterdays high of 91° Grand Rapids now has had its first 90 day of 2017. And with the low of only 71° GR set a new record warmest minimum for the date. (the old record was 70° last set in 2005) It should be noted that the record warmest… Read more »
Mookie
I think it’s safe to say that so-called “pattern change” GR experienced in the beginning of May was nothing more than a small blip in a longer-term warm pattern we’ve been in for years now. Since May 9th, GR has experienced average to above average days 23 out of 33… Read more »
SlimJim

It this plays out we could end the month on the cool side
6 to 10 day
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
and then the 8 to 14 day
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
SlimJim

Sandy (Hudsonville)

Sounds good to me. I like it a little cooler.

Gun Lake Deb

It was certainly a “Go to the lake” weekend – Gun Lake was packed! Now I’m dragging sprinklers around to save the too-crispy lawns at home and at work – sure hope we get some rain!!

Mookie

Wow, looks like GR is already reporting 91 degrees at 2pm. That’s some heat!

Barry in Zeeland
Just had a train hit a car just a couple hundred yards from our house. They had Chicago drive completely closed off to bring in the helicopter. I see the news stations are already reporting it. I used to know the people that lived there, but I’m not sure who… Read more »
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I just read it at WOOD. I didn’t hear any sirens but the house is closed up with the air on. Keeping her in my prayers.

Barry in Zeeland

So is that big line of storms in Wisconsin going to make it here later? Or will the lake once again shred them apart? We really need some rain. I don’t think we’ve had a good thunderstorm since January or February. That sounds kind of odd…….

Mark (East Lansing)

Local met said they will greatly dissipate while crossing Lake Michigan,

Barry in Zeeland
Well they just put our area in a watch, but they do look like they are weakening already. Probably fizzle out to nothing by the time they get here. Crazy how all day today they were forming actually over the lake and strengthening to the North, but anything that heads… Read more »
Mark (East Lansing)

Then again, maybe not. 🙂

Mark (East Lansing)

Lansing tied a 141-year old record high today – 95!

Barry in Zeeland

That’s some impressive heat!

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