The Air Quality Alert is in effect for the following Michigan counties… Mason…Oceana…Muskegon…Ottawa…Kent…Allegan and Van Buren.
…BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING…
* HIGH WAVE ACTION… STRONG CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. * STRONG STRUCTURAL CURRENTS EXPECTED
* STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS EXPECTED
* RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE
* LOCATION…BEACHES FROM HOLLAND TO MANISTEE BEACHES WITH PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS INCLUDE GRAND HAVEN STATE PARK AND PERE MARQUETTE PARK IN MUSKEGON.
* OVERVIEW/POTENTIAL IMPACTS…SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. THE SOUTH SIDE OF PIER STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DANGEROUS PLACES TO SWIM INTO THIS EVENING.
Heavy rain and storms with frequent lightning and winds to 50 mph are possible today mainly in the U.P.. The HRRR models are trying to bring in some showers this morning to our area mainly north of Grand Rapids – I will be surprised if that happens. There are better chances of rain north of U.S. 10 later today.
A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic will continue to produce south to southwest winds here in lower Michigan over the next couple of days. This will act to keep the weather unseasonably warm. A front will slowly approach the region over the next couple of days from the northwest. This system will result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms…some of which could be severe. I am looking at the possibility of storm chances to increase Monday afternoon and evening.
Humidity will be apparent today as the dew-points rise into the mid-sixties with temperatures near or at 90°. We have had two 90° days so far here in the Otsego area.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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Potentially active weather the next couple days. How much strong to severe storms we see will depend on where the outflow boundaries end up from the multiple rounds of convection that form upstream through the period. It looks like the risk increases with time in my cwa.
To start only a small chance for a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm for the northern zones today as warm air advection remains strong and that region is closer to the higher pwat values. Then tonight some high res models are drawing down stronger convection after midnight and dissipate it over the Muskegon to Grand Rapids region Monday morning.
This is further south with the boundary. If the boundary ends up further south…the next round of strong/severe storms would also be further south for later Monday into Monday night. The WRF ARW is showing this trend. So…it appears that increased risk for an organized MCS to develop exists during this period.
Will need to monitor trends closely. Then for Tuesday…the frontal zone will be in the region. That combined with strong instability and decent shear supports a risk for severe storms. .
Very warm and humid weather will continue through midweek. An approaching low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Wednesday night into Thursday. Some stronger storms seem possible late Wednesday/Wednesday night with potential for moderate to strong instability to develop in the warm and humid airmass well out ahead of the front with dew points into the 60s to near 70 degrees and lift/forcing coming from a warm front in the region and eventually from the approaching cold front late Wednesday night and Thursday.
Some storms may linger Thursday mainly over our eastern fcst area until the fropa occurs. A somewhat drier airmass will advect in after fropa Thursday night through Friday. However it will remain seasonably warm with high temperatures still expected to reach the lower to middle 80`s Friday and Saturday. Another low pressure system will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday.