Cat 4 Irma

Cat 4 Irma

posted in: irma, Weather Forecast | 5

First off you may have noticed a new site title at the top of the page.  I am stepping away from the Coffee Shoppe theme and moving towards a more professional weather forecasting title – we are going to become the Michigan Weather Center, seems no one has decided to step into that arena so I am registering a new site as the Michigan Weather Source.  Seems a lot of people are jumping on the Coffee/Weather band wagon.

This will take some time to convert this site over to a new one because I want to upload all the data from this site to the new one, including all of the blog postings and graphics.  The new site will continue to be a WordPress site so there will be a blog…  stay tuned for updates.


Irma is now a Cat 4 hurricane and moving through the Florida keys..  The forecasted track is heading northward up the west coast over the new 24 to 36 hours until it crosses over to Georgia and Alabama.

Here are the radars to track the storm (it auto updates) or you can keep track with our interactive radar.


Below are the storm surge forecasts and rainfall.

Red denotes surges over 9 feet above ground – orange 6 feet and yellow greater than 3 feet.

Storm Surge
Storm Surge

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Next is the forecast GFS wind speeds through Tuesday morning.


Here are a couple web cams from western Florida

 

 


For us here in Michigan we will see a warming trend –

High pressure will remain anchored over the Great Lakes Region through at least Tuesday. A slight chance of showers will arrive on Wednesday as the remains of Irma lift northward. One more day of seasonal temperatures can be expected today then above normal temperatures are forecast through the coming week.


Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






Day and Week Planner

This feature has auto location.


Point Forecasts

Gaylord














Forecast Discussion

(Click Images to Enlarge)

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

Forecast challenges are minimal in the short term. Little support for any clouds until Irma cirrus makes inroads from the south on Monday. Questionable how thick and how far north these clouds will make it considering that ridging continues aloft. Believe these clouds will tend to shear/thin out as they try to work into Michigan Monday and Tuesday, so mostly sunny skies should continue to prevail.

H8 temps are progged to gradually warm as subsidence persists, with 12-14C temps shown on Monday and 15-17C by Tuesday. This translates to warmer high temps after today, in the mid to upr 70s Monday and near 80 to perhaps the lower 80s Tuesday. .

LONG TERM…

Model trends show the remnants of Irma being carried farther northwest. They also show a trend of breaking down the upper ridge a bit more readily, with troughiness extending up into the Great Lakes. Seems like a slightly better chance that we may see a few showers from this upper trough, an extension of Irma. Will have 30 POPs over the SE CWA to cover this chance, mainly late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

As we work into Thursday/Friday the system continues to weaken. This allows the upper ridge to begin to reestablish itself over Great Lake, and fair weather should return and continue into Saturday. Temps should cool down just a bit behind the passage of Irma`s remnants, with daytime highs in the 70s through much of the extended period.


 

5 on "Cat 4 Irma"

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GunLakeDeb
I’m suffering “weather guilt” – it’s so beautiful here, while I’m glued to the TV fretting about Irma. My condo on the Space Coast should be OK; but I have many friends and family with homes on the west coast who will likely lose everything. A LOT of Michigan folks… Read more »
SlimJim
I have been watching the news from Fort Myers. When my sister was still alive I was down there many times and know the area quite well. Looks like the area were my sister lived will get hit hard from both the wind and maybe the surge. When she lived… Read more »
SlimJim

If anyone wants to get the news from Fort Myers and not the Weather Chanel, CNN or FOX here are the local TV stations

http://www.nbc-2.com/

http://www.winknews.com/
SlimJim

*SS*

Just texted family on West coast. They are waiting for the eye to pass. Getting ready to take cover. They still have power right now.

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