Another nice morning (for me anyway) with temperatures in the 50s – the days are noticeably getting shorter now. Sunrise is around 6:40 ( the time I get up in the morning) sunset is around 8:50. I am seeing the possibility of a warmup towards the end of next week where we may see temperatures back in the upper 80s to the mid 90s – this heat wave could last for several days, possibly through the 24th or 25th, so don’t put those air conditioners away yet.
Below are the GFS models I put together this morning starting next Wednesday running through August 26 – the first is the temperature outlook the second the rain outlook.
A cold front will approach the area from the west today and move through the region tonight and Friday. Scattered showers and storms are expected, especially tonight into Friday morning. Dry weather returns for the weekend with high pressure building in from the west. High temperatures will reach the 80s today in many areas, cooling into the 70s for the weekend.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Main forecast challenge pertains to ascertaining shower/thunderstorm chances associated with a cold front moving through Southwest Lower Michigan over the next 24-36 hours. The day looks to begin with a fair amount of mid and high clouds streaming in from the west. Feel shower chances will hold off until at the earliest mid morning in the far northwest due to a dry layer between 850mb and 500mb.
Shower chances increase a bit this afternoon. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm as well, with the NAM indicating some 500-1000 j/kg CAPE. Best chance for showers and storms looks to come tonight with a push of moisture transport at 850mb. The moisture surge will be accompanied by some instability as well, with in excess of 1000 j/kg CAPE noted tonight.
Some scattered redevelopment is expected on Friday as the cold front will finally be pushing through. Overall not expecting widespread showers and storms per the NAMnest. Scattered convection tonight into Friday appears to be the bottom line. Not expecting severe weather at this point given some of the best activity will be coming through tonight with a fairly weak low level jet.
Dry weather is forecast from Friday evening through Saturday with the cold front pressing off the the east. .LONG TERM…
The extended period continues to looks dry and cool, but a slow warm up is expected by the time we get toward the middle of next week. A somewhat blocked pattern, with an upper low over Eastern Canada, will persist into next week.
This keeps the Great Lakes under a northwest upper flow, keeping temps at or slightly below normal. The models are in decent agreement that the Canadian upper low will pivot a short wave through MI on Tuesday. Not seeing much moisture with this system as high pressure dominates the low levels.
Outside chance we will see a few showers with this feature, but it does not appear we will see much. After a cool Sunday and Monday with highs in the 70s, we should see a slow warming trend into Tuesday and Wednesday when lower 80s return.