It has been mild and dry for the start of this summer season, but in the past Grand Rapids has seen some very cool starts to the summer season. In 1945 May ended up with cold lows of 38° on May 29th and then a colder low of 35° on the 30th But June was not any better. As Grand Rapids had lows of 39° on the 3rd the 4th Grand Rapids seen its coldest June low ever° with a low of 32° with 36° on the 5th 38° on the 6th the highs for the first 5 of June 1945 were 55°, 54°, 48°, 56° and 64° Grand Rapids had highs in the low 70’s for several days before reaching 81° on June 13th July (-4.0°) and August (-1.7°) were also well below average. Another cold start to the summer happened in 1910 when May ended with temperatures more like March for the last two days of May. The 30th had a high of 48° and a low of 38° and the 31st was even colder with a high of 41° and a low of 37° with a trace of snow reported. When the calendar flipped to June 1910 the weather did not get any warmer here in Grand Rapids as June 1st had a high of 52° and a low of 39° the 2nd had a high of 47° and a low of 37° the 3rd warmed up to 56° for the high and the low was 41° the 4th seen a high of 64° and a low of 46° the 5th was back down to 59° for the high and the low was 45° June 6 seen a high of 54° and a low of 43° for one cold start of the summer season. Grand Rapids did not have a day in June 1910 of above average temperatures until June 13th the 2nd half of June 1910 had some hot days and the temperature did reach 97° on June 30th 1910 and July seen highs of 99° on July 1st and 98° on the 2nd before cooling down for much of the rest of July 1910. August 1910 was near average at -0.2°
On the flip side May of 1919 ended with highs of 92° on the 30th and 94° on the 31st June of 1919 started out with highs of 92° on the 1st and 94° on the 2nd and 89° on the 3rd Only one of the first 21 days of June 1919 were below average and 5 days for the month were cooler than average and the month ended up at +5.8° there were 7 days of 90+ in that June. July was also warm with the first 4 days all coming in at 90+ with a total of 12 days that July of 90+ August fell to below average with the warmest day being 89° for that month. September seen 3 more days in the 90’s for a total of 24 days of 90+ for 1919.
With June now here lets take a look at some June records from the past. The warmest mean temperature in June was 74.2° (see above) in 1919 the coldest mean temp in June was 61.7° way back in 1889. The wettest was 13.22” in 1892 and the driest was 0.25” in 1988. The highest recorded temperature was 102° on June 20th 1953 and the coldest low was 32° (see above) on June 4th 1945. The sunniest June was 81.7% in June 1963 and the cloudiest was 36.3% in 1982 Last year June here in Grand Rapids the mean temperature was 70.3° there was only 1.15” of rain the warmest day was 93° on the 18th and the coldest it got all month was 45° on the 9th
Here is the CPC’s updated outlook for June 2017.
several other models are hinting at a cooler than average June. We shall see, Maybe a pattern change for the summer season?
Some weather history for the first week of June in west Michigan.
1934: Blistering heat begins the month in one of the Dust Bowl summers of the 1930s. The mercury soared to 102 degrees at Grand Rapids and 97 degrees at Lansing. The 102 degree reading at Grand Rapids is tied for the highest June temperature with June 20, 1953.
1943: A violent tornado inured ten people as it moved from Ingham to Shiawassee County and left a path of destruction 20 miles long. Over 250 farm buildings were damaged or destroyed, including 39 homes and 52 barns. Another tornado hit between Lansing and Bath, causing damage to several farms.
1998: West Michigan was cleaning up from the tremendous destruction caused by the squall line of the day before. Meanwhile on Lake Michigan, water levels continued to rise and fall several feet at some locations through the day as seiches generated by the extreme winds of the squall line continued more than 24 hours after its passage.
1910: It was a cold day in June as temperatures in the upper 40s in the afternoon were more typical of late March. The high of 47 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon are the coldest high temperatures on record for any day in June. At Lansing the high was 49 degrees, second only to the 46 degree high on the previous day for being the coldest June day.
1925: Two people were injured as a tornado moved across central Ionia County. A woman was carried 300 feet and left paralyzed and a man was injured in a barn that collapsed.
1950: Thunderstorms dropped one to three inches of rain across the region. Nearly an inch of rain fell in one hour in Grand Rapids, flooding streets and basements. Lansing had a storm total of 2.30 inches, which was a record for the day.
1945: An early June cold spell brought widespread frost and freezing temperatures from June 3rd to the 5th. The temperature bottomed out at 32 degrees at Grand Rapids on the morning of the 4th, a record for the coldest June temperature and the latest freeze.
1925: An early June heat wave began and lasted through the 6th with record highs in the mid and upper 90s.
1860: Powerful thunderstorms moved across Lake Michigan in the evening. Sailors reported seeing a very large waterspout moving across southern portions of the lake. The storms eventually reached West Michigan, causing damage in the Grand Haven area.
1905: Torrential rains soaked much of the region. From four to six inches of rain on June 5th and 6th caused widespread flooding. Both Lansing and Grand rapids set records for daily rainfall in the month of June with 5.47 and 4.22 inches, respectively.
1869: It was the second frosty morning in a row as temperatures dropped to near or below freezing. Lansing recorded a low of 31 degrees, after a low of 27 degrees on the 5th which is the coldest ever recorded there in the month of June.
1958: One of the coolest Junes on record saw scattered frost across the region as temperature fell to the mid 30s.
1996: A weak, short-lived tornado moved through open country east of Lake Lansing in rural Ingham County. Two other small, weak tornadoes struck near Novi and Flint.
Now it’s time to set back and see how both June 2017 and the rest of the summer of 2017 plays out.
A very summer-like weekend is in store with highs in the 80s inland from Lake Michigan. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible but the majority of the weekend will be dry. Cooler weather is anticipated for the first part of next week.
Low pressure passing by to our north will push a warm front through the area tonight, then will drag a cold front south through the state on Sunday night.
It appears to me areas north of Grand Rapids will see the best shots of rain and storms today and tonight – most of it will wash out before getting south of Grand Rapids. Dewpoints will be higher north of Grand Rapids – rain will have a hard time coming through as it tries to force its way into the dryer air into the southern zones, but still we are showing a 50/50 chance of rain mainly after dark – we could use it as it is getting dry in southern lower Michigan.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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While there is convective potential over the weekend, the reality is that the majority of time it will be quite nice (and very warm). Will therefore try to not be overly pessimistic with the forecast. For the third day in a row, RAP forecast soundings show very deep dry adiabatic lapse rates mixing down dry air, leading to afternoon RH values dropping into the 20s and 30s – particularly from GRR south and east.
High temps should therefore have no problem reaching near 85 over much of the area with only cirrus filtered sunshine. The mixing of boundary layer dry air does not bode well for rain potential today, with exception of perhaps some light showers north of a MKG to MOP line related to remains of the convection currently over NW WI.
Guidance has been consistent in showing a line of organized convection developing over NW WI late this afternoon and heading southeast into wrn lwr MI tonight. This band of convection will probably be in a weakening stage as it slips south, reaching Ludington around 03Z then MKG/GRR 06Z-09Z before washing out. If it holds together there could be some gusty winds with it, especially considering the dry air below the expected high cloud bases.
Convection on Sunday should re-ignite in a west-east band, mainly south and east of our area. It is possible we see a few stronger storms in the initial development stage south and east of GRR, before low level stable westerly flow results in a mainly dry afternoon pattern.
However a potent looking shortwave dropping down from the northwest on Sunday night may send a decent round of showers and storms through the area before the colder/drier air mass arrive on Monday. .
We are looking at a potentially quiet weather pattern for the first half of the long term. Then the pattern could become a bit unsettled later in the period for late next week. We are expecting improving conditions at the beginning of the long term on Mon night into Tue. Rain chances will diminish as the upper low to our east should move just far enough away to take the rain with it.
We will become under the influence of the upper ridge building overhead. This should settle over the area until at least Wed night. Temperatures will remain seasonable and warm to a little above average levels. The chance for some rain will slowly increase then through Fri.
The upper ridge overhead for mid-week will be beat down by short waves coming in from the NW. This will take place as an upper ridge re- establishes itself over the Rockies and Plains states with a strong trough moving to just offshore of the West Coast. This looks to be a scenario where a decent amount of sun is seen, but short waves will bring a chance of rain, especially if it comes through during peak heating. Temps will cool down slightly with the cool air aloft coming in.