Looking at the long range models I am seeing several chances of high temperatures getting into the low 80s over the next couple weeks with very few chances of rain forecasted. We are not in drought conditions but are abnormally dry from the lack of consistent rainfall. Below are the graphics from the drought monitor both current and from last year at this time. The yellow denotes abnormally dry conditions.
Not seeing much change in our pattern with the exception of warmer than normal temperatures through the rest of the month. The cooler are has moved to the western U.S. – below are the CPC graphics for the next four weeks. I also have the GFS models in the bottom right through September 28th. We are looking at maybe another inch or so of rain through the end of the month.
Tropical Depression Irma will bring some cloudiness to the region the next couple days as it advances north and continues to weaken. A few showers will be possible on Wednesday (about a 30% chance) as it tracks through the Ohio Valley, then decreasing clouds will follow Thursday as the system dissipates and high pressure builds back into the region. The upcoming weekend looks quite summerlike with highs around 80 and more humid conditions developing.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Upper ridge to temporarily break down in favor of old Irma upper low which tracks through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. This is a rather broad circulation with thicker cirrus already impacting srn Lwr MI. Difficult cloud forecast today given current extent of cirrus and uncertainty in how thick and persistent it will be, but will have to be a bit more pessimistic for areas south of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line.
Filtered/hazy sun may also hold down highs a few degrees. Primary moisture surge arrives late tonight as respectable PWAT values around 1.5 inches advance in from the south and linger over the area on Wednesday. Given the relative close proximity of the upper low center, which tracks over Indianapolis and Dayton on Wednesday, a scattered shower threat remains reasonable.
However the thunder threat looks very low with only 200 J/KG of MUCape progged and no history so far of any thunder on the north side of the circulation. Only light QPF amounts expected Wednesday, with main risk being south of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line.
Actually the far north, including Ludington, could stay mostly sunny on Wednesday since there will probably be a sharp northern edge to the clouds and precip. Upper ridge becomes re-established Thursday in the wake of the departing circulation, so shower threat ending with decreasing clouds following. .
An upper level ridge will gradually build and amplify over our region late in the week through the weekend and produce fair weather along with very mild temperatures. High temperatures Friday through the weekend will average around ten to fifteen degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s. A weak cold front will bring the next chance for rain late Sunday through Sunday night into early Monday.
A few thunderstorms may also be possible depending largely on frontal timing and whether enough instability develops. At this time there is not enough potential in convection to warrant a change to the forecast which features a chance of showers. High temperatures on Monday should still reach the 70`s after the frontal passage.