The feature image is from the South Haven web cam at 7am this morning showing the waves already sweeping over the pier. The clouds looking to the north look ominous and almost winter-like.
There is a gale warning for Lake Michigan for 40 knot winds (46 mph) and waves up to 14 feet. The graphic to the left was created yesterday.
A low pressure system strengthening near Green Bay this morning will track northeast through the day. Lots of clouds and showers (some lake enhanced) along with gusty winds will accompany the passage of this system. Looking at the HRRR temperature model we will stay in the 60s today which may be a shock after being in the 80’s for an extended period.
We have received .55 inches of rain from this system in Otsego thus far – we can expect less than a quarter inch today through midnight.
An area of high pressure in the western plains states will build east today and Saturday. As a result…mainly dry conditions are forecasted for the area on Saturday.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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The mid to upper low was off to the west in Wisconsin while the dry slot has overspread the region at this time. Thus a lull in the precipitation will occur to start the day. Wrap around moisture moves in later this morning and persists through the afternoon. This coupled with lake enhanced moisture should support a rather wet late morning through afternoon period especially the western half of the CWA.
I raised POPs and lowered temperatures as a result. It certainly will feel like fall. The deep moisture will pull away this evening. Thus a gradual diminishing trend to the precipitation is expected. Saturday is looking dry for much of the region…then the next storm system nears the region.
It looks like we will be on the north side of the track of this system…thus cooler than normal temperatures are expected. It does become unstable in the afternoon so will feature a risk for thunderstorms. .
The long term can be summarized by a couple of unsettled periods of weather at the beginning and end of the period, with a dry period in the middle. Temperatures will generally range from around average to below average through most of the period.
The unsettled weather at the beginning of the long term will be for Sun night and Mon. A frontal system and sfc low will move by to our south. We will see a northern stream short wave dive in from the NW, and bring shower chances to the area. Temperatures will have recovered a bit from today, but will remain a little below average.
We are expecting dry weather with moderating temperatures then for Tue and Wed. The upper wave in here early in the week will move by, and leave a short wave ridge in control. Return flow will eventually help to push temps to near average levels in the lower 80s by Wed.
The weather becomes unsettled once again then for the end of the period on Thu, and beyond. Another northern stream wave will dive in from the NW and will push a sfc (surface) front into the area. Rain chances will arrive as early as Wed night, and will increase on Thu as the front approaches and we have some diurnal heating to help out with the cause. This will be the beginning of another cool down.