Yesterday morning I didn’t think much about it until I hit the road at 8:30 – visibilities were 1/8 mile in some areas along M89 heading towards Allegan.
* Dense fog will continue to spread westward and southward early this morning. The area between Grand Rapids, to Holland to South Haven should be the last to see the dense fog.
* The dense fog will burn of the soonest in western sections and closer to 10 AM over eastern sections.
Visibilities will be near zero at times early this morning but will improving in all areas by mid to late this morning.
Dense fog should lift quickly by mid morning across the area. This will leave us with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 as a weak high pressure system moves through Lower Michigan today.
A Canadian cold front drops south across Lower Michigan tonight with a few light rain showers, but most areas will remain dry. The Canadian Polar air that follows the front will bring temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than they have been the past few days for Thursday and Friday.
Skies should be mostly clear by mid morning Thursday and remain so into the Labor Day Weekend. With the surface high east of the area by Saturday there will be a warming trend into Sunday before yet another cold front comes through with even colder air by the middle of next week.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Overall expect cooler than normal temperature and little if any precipitation into the coming weekend. By the middle of next week we will likely see some truly chilly temperature, cooler than we have seen since at least May of this year.
A departing upper level storm system will bring the risk of afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm east of Grand Rapid otherwise the fog of early this morning should burn off by 9 am or so. High pressure ridges in for tonight into Wednesday ahead of significant early fall cold front that will come through the area dry early Thursday.
Once again through we could see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms east of Grand Rapids. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week with highs near 80. It will be much cooler Thursday into Friday behind the next cold front. Below is the GFS temperature forecast through September 14.
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The issues for this forecast are the dense fog this morning, just will it reach 80 for a high this afternoon and will there be showers with the cold front tonight? I will keep our dense fog advisory as is this morning. The current area of dense fog matches the RAP models dense fog area nearly perfectly and with that being so all areas of the CWA should be in dense fog by sunrise.
The RAP model has been for many runs in a row showing the same idea with the fog, that it would be over our northern and eastern CWA first (and it is). Then it would spread south from the Route 10 area and west from the I-75 area, converging on the Grand Rapids, Allegan, South Haven and Holland areas toward sunrise. Since the progression of this fog has been and continues to match the model forecast, I will leave the Headlines as is this morning.
The fog should mix out by 10 AM. With the surface high over Lower Michigan today the air at mid levels will be to dry for afternoon convection so I did not put it back into the forecast. There is some chance of an area of showers with the cold front tonight into early Thursday morning but jet feature that pushes this front into our area stays in Canada over Quebec and Ontario so that means we stay on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet which means we get little if any serious risk of significant showers with this system.
Even so the high resolution models do show an area of showers sinking south over Lake Michigan early tonight before they totally dry out before midnight. I keep a very low chance over our western CWA in that regard. Since in this case we do not get into the deep cold air, just shallow surface high assoicated with the cold air skies will quickly become mostly sunny Thursday once the frontal clouds clear. and skies should remain nearly clear through Friday.
This will mean another very chilly night Thursday night, areas near Route 10, east of Reed City will likely see lows in the 30s like they did with the last event. Elsewhere lows will be in the 40s. .
High pressure will continue to bring fair wx Friday night through Saturday. A consensus of 00z medium range guidance continues to suggest that remnants of the former tropical system will stay south to southeast of our fcst area Friday night through Saturday.
High temperatures Saturday will reach the lower to middle 70`s. For now based on 00z guidance consensus time height rh progs we will stick with a mostly clear fcst Friday night through Saturday. However it does seem possible that a fairly dense mid/high level cloud canopy may move in from the south tied to the remnants of the former tropical system.
Temperatures will continue to undergo a gradual moderating trend Sunday and for Labor Day as persistent south to southwest flow waa develops. High temperatures Sunday and Labor Day will range from the middle 70`s across our northern fcst area to the upper 70`s to lower 80`s over our southern fcst area.
There is a small chance of warm air advection showers Sunday night but at the vast majority of the holiday weekend still looks dry. A strong cold front will approach from the northwest late in the day on Labor Day and bring rain and perhaps some convection mainly for Monday night.
Strong nw flow cool air advection will occur after fropa (frontal passage) and high temps Tuesday will struggle to reach the upper 60`s to lower 70`s. Unseasonably cool wx is forecast for mid to late next week as the upper level trough continues to dig and amplify over region. Temperatures by then will average around 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year with extensive stratocu and scattered instability showers as a fall like wx pattern takes hold.