Happy National Doughnut Day

Happy National Doughnut Day

posted in: Weather Forecast | 7

What a great day for eating doughnuts – had mine first thing this morning with my coffee.  We have had a very pleasant period of weather as of late but we need some rain here in SW Michigan.  Below are the summaries for spring and May.

Spring2017_CLS

May2017_CLM


High pressure will provide another pleasant day before slipping away Saturday. Low pressure tracking east across the northern Great Lakes Region over the weekend will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Below are the CPC Outlooks for Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Point Forecasts

Gaylord














Forecast Discussion

(click images to enlarge)

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

Band of mid clouds with isolated light showers/sprinkles will impact areas north of a Ludington to Mt Pleasant line this morning. Otherwise, another mostly sunny and pleasant day with warmer highs near 80s. Guidance failed to accurately depict dew point trends yesterday so lowered them again today 5-10 degrees.

Dry air hanging around will have implications as we head into the weekend. First, the warm front related pcpn will probably struggle to move in from the west on Saturday and the whole day could easily end up being dry/warm with considerable sunshine. Second, and more importantly, if organized convection arrives Saturday evening from Wisconsin, the pre existing dry sub cloud air could promote some near svr wind gusts.

NAM soundings Saturday evening show MUCAPEs 1000-1500 J/KG with similar values of DCAPE. Deep layer shear values are progged to be increasing from from 25 to 35 kts which may help carry/maintain Wisconsin convection across Lake MI.

At this time it looks like the marginal severe wx risk on Sunday will shift to be mainly near and south of I-94 where better sfc convergence will be present. The low level flow over wrn Lwr MI is shown to become westerly, which generally makes it difficult to develop convection due to stable onshore flow/lake shadowing. .

LONG TERM…

Sfc low is moving east of Lower Michigan by Sunday night with another Canadian high building in so showers should be winding down with a period of fair weather lasting most of the period. The sfc high begins to move east in Wednesday with return flow and some showers potentially moving in by the end of the period ahead of next shortwave trough.

There are some timing differences as can be expected at that range as some ensemble members support showers arriving as early as Wednesday. We will keep the slower arrival given by Superblend which keeps Wednesday dry and chance POPs on Thursday.


7 on "Happy National Doughnut Day"

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ROCKY (Rockford)

What a cool stretch of weather! Give me 70’s all summer long! Who needs 90 degrees and humid? Hot and Humid = HORRIBLE! 70’s with comfortable humidity = FANTASTIC! Keep it coming!!!

ROCKY (Rockford)

Lets hope for another summer with NO 90 degree temps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SlimJim

Here is the updated CPC’s outlook for June.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
SlimJim

Mookie

Well, meteorological spring is in the books, and we finished yet another season with above average temps. Will summer continue this trend?

Jack Edwards

My Favorite Doughnut ….IS.
Chocolate Doughnut with Chocolate Frosting & Chocolate Sprinkles.
YUM…..HNDD.
& hApPy….fRiDaY

GunLakeDeb

My sis makes donuts for a local Gun Lake bakery – her specialty? “Crack” donuts with Maple Bacon frosting 🙂

GunLakeDeb
When I left work a little after 2 PM, I could see heavy smoke off to the ENE of Gun Lake – I can still see wisps of smoke still. Does anyone know what burned? Although as dry as it has been, maybe it’s just brush-pile burning, although it would… Read more »
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