What a great day for eating doughnuts – had mine first thing this morning with my coffee. We have had a very pleasant period of weather as of late but we need some rain here in SW Michigan. Below are the summaries for spring and May.
High pressure will provide another pleasant day before slipping away Saturday. Low pressure tracking east across the northern Great Lakes Region over the weekend will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Below are the CPC Outlooks for Saturday and Sunday.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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Band of mid clouds with isolated light showers/sprinkles will impact areas north of a Ludington to Mt Pleasant line this morning. Otherwise, another mostly sunny and pleasant day with warmer highs near 80s. Guidance failed to accurately depict dew point trends yesterday so lowered them again today 5-10 degrees.
Dry air hanging around will have implications as we head into the weekend. First, the warm front related pcpn will probably struggle to move in from the west on Saturday and the whole day could easily end up being dry/warm with considerable sunshine. Second, and more importantly, if organized convection arrives Saturday evening from Wisconsin, the pre existing dry sub cloud air could promote some near svr wind gusts.
NAM soundings Saturday evening show MUCAPEs 1000-1500 J/KG with similar values of DCAPE. Deep layer shear values are progged to be increasing from from 25 to 35 kts which may help carry/maintain Wisconsin convection across Lake MI.
At this time it looks like the marginal severe wx risk on Sunday will shift to be mainly near and south of I-94 where better sfc convergence will be present. The low level flow over wrn Lwr MI is shown to become westerly, which generally makes it difficult to develop convection due to stable onshore flow/lake shadowing. .
Sfc low is moving east of Lower Michigan by Sunday night with another Canadian high building in so showers should be winding down with a period of fair weather lasting most of the period. The sfc high begins to move east in Wednesday with return flow and some showers potentially moving in by the end of the period ahead of next shortwave trough.
There are some timing differences as can be expected at that range as some ensemble members support showers arriving as early as Wednesday. We will keep the slower arrival given by Superblend which keeps Wednesday dry and chance POPs on Thursday.