Harvey – Florida Rainfall – Cool Weather Pattern Continues

Harvey – Florida Rainfall – Cool Weather Pattern Continues

posted in: Weather Forecast | 2

We have been watching Harvey this weekend raising havoc in eastern Texas ignoring the rain and storms going on in Florida from another low pressure system hanging out over the state.  Taking a few looks at the PWS’s around the state, while the Melbourne area has had around .25 of an inch of rain over the past week, Fort Meyers has had 9.56, Naples 12.74 and Miami 4.94.  The low pressure system is expect to drift out to the Atlantic and move up to the Carolina’s where it may strengthen – will have to keep an eye on this.

Sad to say I couldn’t find and PWS’s reporting in eastern Texas which would tell me there are wide spread power outages in that area.  Reports from The Weather Channel states in the 24 hours through Sunday 6 a.m. CDT, parts of the southeast Houston metro area had received more than 20 inches of rain. One location in far southeast Harris County near Webster logged 24.28 inches of rain in 24 hours and 26.76 inches in 48 hours.

Here are the latest rainfall totals through 1 a.m. CDT Sunday:

  • 21.08 inches in League City
  • 18.28 inches near Pasadena
  • 15.10 inches near Austwell
  • 15.10 inches near Smithville
  • 13.82 inches San Antonio River near McFadden
  • 15.00 inches near South Houston (six hour total)
  • 13.52 inches near Sugar Land
  • 10.54 inches in Aransas
  • 9.92 inches near Richmond
  • 9.37 inches near Victoria
  • 7.73 inches in Palacios
  • 7.33 inches at Houston Hull Field
  • 6.81 inches in Galveston
  • 5.96 inches in Berry Bayou (Harris County – three hour total between 9 pm -12 am CDT Sat/Sun)

Here are the highest wind gusts we’ve seen from Harvey:

  • Port Aransas: 132 mph, sustained to 110 mph
  • Near Copano Village: 125 mph
  • Near Lamar: 110 mph
  • Rockport: 108 mph
  • Near Taft: 90 mph
  • Near Magnolia Beach: 79 mph
  • Palacios: 69 mph
  • Corpus Christi Int’l Airport: 63 mph
  • Austin Bergstrom Int’l Airport: 52 mph

The graphic below from the Weather Channel shows additional rainfall predicted to fall through next Friday.

harvey rainfall


For us here in the great state of Michigan our weather pattern could remain on the cooler side right through a good chunk of September – rainfall could be around normal (these are the CPC guesses through September 22nd)

610temp.new827

814temp.new827

WK34temp827


Next are the GFS forecast models through September 12th

GFS Temperature
GFS Temperature
Total Rainfall
Total Rainfall

A weak area of low pressure over Minnesota will track slowly southeast today and into the Great Lakes Region for Monday. This system will persist over the area through Tuesday. As a result the weather will feature abundant clouds along with increasing chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms to start the week.

 

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






Day and Week Planner

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Point Forecasts

Gaylord














High pressure will bring fair weather into the weekend. There will be a chance of showers by Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes.

Forecast Discussion

(Click Images to Enlarge)

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rainfall
Rainfall
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dewpoints
Dewpoints
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

The main challenge in the short term deals with the potential for rain. Overall the system looks rather weak…so will keep the POPs mostly low for the period. The mid level low that drops down from Minnesota will be weakening tonight into Monday.

Models are in reasonable agreement on this. Still with a mid level cyclonic circulation and an inverted surface trough moving in…there will be some lift. PWAT values peak tonight…then drop off as the mid level feature moves in. Not much instability around…but looking at Monday and Tuesday some afternoon surface based instability develops. So it looks like with lift and some moisture in place over the next couple of days…a diurnal trend to the showers and thunderstorms should be the pattern.

Today and tonight…this means western zones will see the highest potential for showers. Monday and Tuesday the greater potential is further inland. There will be lots of clouds around for the next couple of days. This will act to hold back daytime highs a couple of degrees and prevent overnight lows from dropping off to the cool readings that we have seen recently. .

LONG TERM…

A fairly quiet extended period with only low chances of rain Wednesday night/Thursday and again Saturday. Temps will be near normal Wednesday and Saturday, with below normal temps for Thursday and Friday. Northwest flow behind the upper low should bring an upper trough and cold front into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will give us another chance of showers in these periods.

Behind this system the upper pattern turns sharply northerly, and with Canadian high pressure filling in by Thu night, we will see another cool period from Thursday through Friday night. Temps appear to return to around normal by early Labor Day weekend as the flow becomes more zonal and we get on the back side of the surface high. We could see some spotty showers Saturday in the warm advection pattern.


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GunLakeDeb

I LOVE this wonderful cool weather! Makes me feel guilty about enjoying this while the folks in TX (and FL) are getting hammered with rain. Keeping the people in TX in my prayers – water is relentless….

ROCKY (Rockford)

mi summers = incredible

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