Heat Wave

Heat Wave

posted in: Weather Forecast | 11

Coming up on or first heat wave of the summer.  It has been rather dry in the SW lower so I would think fire dangers will be elevated due to the lack of rain.  We picked up another .01 this morning which brings us to .09 inches for the month and around .25 for the past four weeks (this is for the Otsego/Allegan/Plainwell area).  We are not in drought conditions yet due to all the rain we had during the winter and early spring.

Weak low pressure will move through today bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rain should end this evening with fair weather for the weekend.  I think most of any rain and storms we get will be east of 131.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 80’s to near 90 over the next four or five days beginning Saturday – chances of rain are slim with the exception of the upper lower and the U.P.


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Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
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Cloud Cover
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Dew Points
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Wind Gusts

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

SHORT TERM…

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon with the highest chances shifting east of the forecast area by evening as indicated in all the hi-res model guidance. Coverage of showers will be limited by lack of upper level support and deep ascent, although there could be a boost in coverage across roughly the eastern half of the forecast area due to increase in instability from sfc heating and low level convergence and lift provided by the lake breeze.

The weak sfc front washes out across Lower Michigan overnight with return flow setting up late Saturday. Gradient tightens Saturday night with strong southerly winds ushering in warmer temperatures and higher dew points for Sunday. .

LONG TERM…

The models remain consistent bringing in H8 air of +17C to +19C over the region with an upper ridge sitting over the Carolina`s into the lower Great Lakes. This continues to support temps reaching the upper 80s to around 90 Monday through Wednesday.

It appears this ridge begins to drift east late in the week as a short wave moves into the upper Midwest. So it should not be as warm into Thursday. As for rain, being on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, nighttime MCSs are possible across Central Lower Sunday night, and to a lesser degree Monday night. So will continue to have chance POPs toward Highway 10.

The surface boundary these storms should travel along appears to drop a bit south by Tuesday, so storms may be possible anywhere north of I-96 by then. Better chances of showers and storms appear into the Wed/Thu time frame.

By this time period the upper ridge should be drifting off to the east. This should allow a cold front to push into the Western Great Lakes. The front should be accompanied by a nocturnal low level jet, most likely resulting in a decent chance of pcpn Wed night. Temps should not be as warm by Thursday, generally 80 to 85.


11 on "Heat Wave"

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SlimJim
As stated we will be somewhat warm over the next several days and will likely have to turn on the air (for those of us who have it) At this time it looks like all of the record highs will be safe for the next 3 days the records for… Read more »
Mookie
“Somewhat warm.” haha We’ve had summers where it hasn’t hit 90… let alone multiple days in early June! Even the UP may get a 90 degree day or two. The recent MLive weather article on the heat wave uses “sizzling” “baked” “hot.” I guess the weather is truly in the… Read more »
SlimJim
Yes, it is all in both the eye of the beholder and where one lives. At this time, Grand Rapids still has not officially recorded a 90° day this year so looking at it in that respect this year is still in the running for joining the list of the… Read more »
Mookie
The bigger question is how much will this long duration heat wave increase June monthly temperatures above average? And does it all but guarantee a warm June for us? Time will tell… but meteorological summer is certainly starting warm, contrary to some earlier predictions on here. After a warm spring,… Read more »
Barry in Zeeland
Ugh! Not looking forward to the heat at all. You know it’s going to be bad when you read a phrase like “not as warm Thursday with a high of 85”. 85 is to hot for me. Whatever the outside temp is, you can add 15 to 20 degrees onto… Read more »
ROCKY (Rockford)

The weather this week has been INCREDIBLE! The forecast for next week is HORRENDOUS! Lets hope it only lasts a few days! Golf has been AWESOME lately!

Mark (East Lansing)

Local met said it has been four years (July 15-19, 2013) since we’ve had a stretch like this.

Barry in Zeeland
I don’t remember the specifics without looking everything up, but this Summer is starting out the way I remember 1988. A lot of sunny, dry hot days lead to even more sunny, sweltering hot days with little to no rain making everything bone dry. Of course the drier it gets,… Read more »
ROCKY (Rockford)

These above normal temps will be short lived. Get ready for a lot of near to below normal temps this summer! It will be amazing!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

Sandy (Hudsonville)

I hope everyone is ready for the upcoming heat wave. Stay cool. Have some Gatorade on hand to drink. Check on elderly neighbors. Keep your pets cool & a good supply of water for them to drink. 🙂

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