Coming up on or first heat wave of the summer. It has been rather dry in the SW lower so I would think fire dangers will be elevated due to the lack of rain. We picked up another .01 this morning which brings us to .09 inches for the month and around .25 for the past four weeks (this is for the Otsego/Allegan/Plainwell area). We are not in drought conditions yet due to all the rain we had during the winter and early spring.
Weak low pressure will move through today bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rain should end this evening with fair weather for the weekend. I think most of any rain and storms we get will be east of 131.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 80’s to near 90 over the next four or five days beginning Saturday – chances of rain are slim with the exception of the upper lower and the U.P.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
This feature has auto location.
(click images to enlarge)
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon with the highest chances shifting east of the forecast area by evening as indicated in all the hi-res model guidance. Coverage of showers will be limited by lack of upper level support and deep ascent, although there could be a boost in coverage across roughly the eastern half of the forecast area due to increase in instability from sfc heating and low level convergence and lift provided by the lake breeze.
The weak sfc front washes out across Lower Michigan overnight with return flow setting up late Saturday. Gradient tightens Saturday night with strong southerly winds ushering in warmer temperatures and higher dew points for Sunday. .
The models remain consistent bringing in H8 air of +17C to +19C over the region with an upper ridge sitting over the Carolina`s into the lower Great Lakes. This continues to support temps reaching the upper 80s to around 90 Monday through Wednesday.
It appears this ridge begins to drift east late in the week as a short wave moves into the upper Midwest. So it should not be as warm into Thursday. As for rain, being on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, nighttime MCSs are possible across Central Lower Sunday night, and to a lesser degree Monday night. So will continue to have chance POPs toward Highway 10.
The surface boundary these storms should travel along appears to drop a bit south by Tuesday, so storms may be possible anywhere north of I-96 by then. Better chances of showers and storms appear into the Wed/Thu time frame.
By this time period the upper ridge should be drifting off to the east. This should allow a cold front to push into the Western Great Lakes. The front should be accompanied by a nocturnal low level jet, most likely resulting in a decent chance of pcpn Wed night. Temps should not be as warm by Thursday, generally 80 to 85.