Historical Weather Comparisons

Historical Weather Comparisons

First of all I would like to thank Slim for his diligent postings every Saturday for more than a year now on weather history – I know first hand how much time it takes to dig up the data.

With the boring weather pattern shaping up I thought I would post some historical weather pattern data here today.  The data below is the departure from mean normal temperatures – model run is from 1950 to 2017 June to July of the next year.

Mean temperature in its simplest calculation for year to year totals is (max+min)/2.

I sorted this by departure from normal with the coolest to the warmest.  You can click on the ranking number to go to NOAA’s site for more information on that ranking.  The Tables represent the data for Southwest Michigan.


197707 – 197806 45.6°F 1 -2.5°F
196207 – 196306 45.9°F 2 -2.2°F
198107 – 198206 45.9°F 2 -2.2°F
197607 – 197706 46.0°F 4 -2.1°F
197807 – 197906 46.2°F 5 -1.9°F
201307 – 201406 46.2°F 5 -1.9°F
199307 – 199406 46.4°F 7 -1.7°F
199207 – 199306 46.5°F 8 -1.6°F
195007 – 195106 46.6°F 9 -1.5°F
201407 – 201506 46.6°F 9 -1.5°F
195707 – 195806 46.8°F 11 -1.3°F
196707 – 196806 46.8°F 11 -1.3°F
199507 – 199606 46.8°F 11 -1.3°F
199607 – 199706 46.8°F 11 -1.3°F
196407 – 196506 46.9°F 15 -1.2°F
196907 – 197006 46.9°F 15 -1.2°F
195807 – 195906 47.0°F 17 -1.1°F
197907 – 198006 47.0°F 17 -1.1°F
195107 – 195206 47.1°F 19 -1.0°F
196007 – 196106 47.3°F 20 -0.8°F
196507 – 196606 47.3°F 20 -0.8°F
196607 – 196706 47.4°F 22 -0.7°F
196807 – 196906 47.4°F 22 -0.7°F
197007 – 197106 47.4°F 22 -0.7°F
195907 – 196006 47.5°F 25 -0.6°F
198007 – 198106 47.5°F 25 -0.6°F
198307 – 198406 47.5°F 25 -0.6°F
200207 – 200306 47.6°F 28 -0.5°F
196107 – 196206 47.7°F 29 -0.4°F
197407 – 197506 47.7°F 29 -0.4°F
200807 – 200906 47.7°F 29 -0.4°F
194907 – 195006 47.8°F 32 -0.3°F
197107 – 197206 47.8°F 32 -0.3°F
198507 – 198606 47.9°F 34 -0.2°F
198907 – 199006 47.9°F 36 -0.2°F
200007 – 200106 47.9°F 36 -0.2°F
195507 – 195606 48.0°F 39 -0.1°F
197207 – 197306 48.0°F 39 -0.1°F
198807 – 198906 48.0°F 39 -0.1°F
195607 – 195706 48.2°F 42 0.1°F
197307 – 197406 48.2°F 42 0.1°F
199107 – 199206 48.2°F 42 0.1°F
198707 – 198806 48.3°F 43 0.2°F
195407 – 195506 48.4°F 44 0.3°F
198407 – 198506 48.6°F 45 0.5°F
200407 – 200506 48.7°F 47 0.6°F
201007 – 201106 48.7°F 47 0.6°F
195207 – 195306 48.8°F 51 0.7°F
197507 – 197606 48.8°F 51 0.7°F
199407 – 199506 48.8°F 51 0.7°F
200707 – 200806 48.8°F 51 0.7°F
196307 – 196406 48.9°F 53 0.8°F
200307 – 200406 48.9°F 53 0.8°F
198207 – 198306 49.1°F 55 1.0°F
200907 – 201006 49.1°F 55 1.0°F
201207 – 201306 49.2°F 56 1.1°F
195307 – 195406 49.6°F 58 1.5°F
198607 – 198706 49.6°F 58 1.5°F
200607 – 200706 49.7°F 59 1.6°F
199707 – 199806 49.8°F 60 1.7°F
199007 – 199106 50.2°F 62 2.1°F
200107 – 200206 50.2°F 62 2.1°F
199907 – 200006 50.3°F 63 2.2°F
200507 – 200606 50.5°F 64 2.4°F
199807 – 199906 50.6°F 65 2.5°F
201507 – 201606 50.9°F 66 2.8°F
201607 – 201706 51.6°F 67 3.5°F
201107 – 201206 52.3°F 68 4.2°F

This next set are the data running through 2016 January to December

197801 – 197812 45.8°F 1 -2.3°F
201401 – 201412 45.9°F 2 -2.2°F
197201 – 197212 46.1°F 3 -2.0°F
197901 – 197912 46.1°F 3 -2.0°F
195001 – 195012 46.2°F 5 -1.9°F
197601 – 197612 46.4°F 6 -1.7°F
198901 – 198912 46.4°F 6 -1.7°F
199601 – 199612 46.4°F 6 -1.7°F
195101 – 195112 46.5°F 9 -1.6°F
195801 – 195812 46.5°F 9 -1.6°F
196301 – 196312 46.6°F 11 -1.5°F
198001 – 198012 46.6°F 11 -1.5°F
196701 – 196712 46.7°F 13 -1.4°F
196201 – 196212 46.8°F 14 -1.3°F
196001 – 196012 46.9°F 15 -1.2°F
196601 – 196612 46.9°F 15 -1.2°F
196901 – 196912 47.0°F 17 -1.1°F
199301 – 199312 47.0°F 17 -1.1°F
199701 – 199712 47.0°F 17 -1.1°F
199201 – 199212 47.1°F 20 -1.0°F
198201 – 198212 47.3°F 21 -0.8°F
196501 – 196512 47.4°F 22 -0.7°F
197401 – 197412 47.4°F 22 -0.7°F
197001 – 197012 47.5°F 24 -0.6°F
198101 – 198112 47.5°F 24 -0.6°F
199401 – 199412 47.5°F 24 -0.6°F
195701 – 195712 47.6°F 27 -0.5°F
196101 – 196112 47.6°F 27 -0.5°F
198501 – 198512 47.6°F 27 -0.5°F
200801 – 200812 47.6°F 27 -0.5°F
200901 – 200912 47.6°F 27 -0.5°F
200301 – 200312 47.7°F 32 -0.4°F
196801 – 196812 47.8°F 33 -0.3°F
197701 – 197712 47.8°F 34 -0.3°F
195601 – 195612 47.9°F 37 -0.2°F
199501 – 199512 47.9°F 37 -0.2°F
201301 – 201312 47.9°F 37 -0.2°F
195901 – 195912 48.0°F 40 -0.1°F
197101 – 197112 48.0°F 40 -0.1°F
198401 – 198412 48.0°F 40 -0.1°F
197501 – 197512 48.2°F 42 0.1°F
198801 – 198812 48.2°F 42 0.1°F
198601 – 198612 48.3°F 43 0.2°F
195201 – 195212 48.4°F 46 0.3°F
198301 – 198312 48.4°F 46 0.3°F
200401 – 200412 48.4°F 46 0.3°F
195401 – 195412 48.5°F 48 0.4°F
196401 – 196412 48.5°F 48 0.4°F
200001 – 200012 48.7°F 49 0.6°F
201501 – 201512 48.8°F 50 0.7°F
195501 – 195512 48.9°F 51 0.8°F
201101 – 201112 49.2°F 52 1.1°F
199001 – 199012 49.4°F 53 1.3°F
197301 – 197312 49.5°F 56 1.4°F
200201 – 200212 49.5°F 56 1.4°F
200501 – 200512 49.5°F 56 1.4°F
199901 – 199912 49.8°F 58 1.7°F
200701 – 200712 49.8°F 58 1.7°F
195301 – 195312 49.9°F 61 1.8°F
199101 – 199112 49.9°F 61 1.8°F
200101 – 200112 49.9°F 61 1.8°F
198701 – 198712 50.2°F 62 2.1°F
201001 – 201012 50.3°F 63 2.2°F
200601 – 200612 50.4°F 64 2.3°F
201601 – 201612 50.9°F 65 2.8°F
199801 – 199812 51.8°F 66 3.7°F
201201 – 201212 52.0°F 67 3.9°F

Next are the precipitation departures from normal with the base mean of 36.11 inches – again this is for Southwest Michigan.

195301 – 195312 26.57″ 1 -9.54″
195801 – 195812 26.75″ 2 -9.36″
195601 – 195612 26.83″ 3 -9.28″
196201 – 196212 27.18″ 4 -8.93″
196301 – 196312 28.18″ 5 -7.93″
197101 – 197112 29.73″ 6 -6.38″
196401 – 196412 30.07″ 7 -6.04″
200201 – 200212 30.35″ 8 -5.76″
200501 – 200512 31.21″ 9 -4.90″
199801 – 199812 31.26″ 10 -4.85″
199901 – 199912 31.55″ 11 -4.56″
196001 – 196012 32.02″ 12 -4.09″
198901 – 198912 32.18″ 13 -3.93″
199601 – 199612 32.58″ 14 -3.53″
195501 – 195512 32.61″ 15 -3.50″
201201 – 201212 32.64″ 16 -3.47″
196101 – 196112 33.11″ 17 -3.00″
195201 – 195212 33.17″ 18 -2.94″
198401 – 198412 33.22″ 19 -2.89″
199501 – 199512 33.31″ 20 -2.80″
197601 – 197612 33.35″ 21 -2.76″
200301 – 200312 33.45″ 22 -2.66″
196901 – 196912 33.58″ 23 -2.53″
201001 – 201012 34.11″ 24 -2.00″
199701 – 199712 34.87″ 25 -1.24″
201501 – 201512 34.99″ 26 -1.12″
198301 – 198312 35.14″ 27 -0.97″
196601 – 196612 35.17″ 28 -0.94″
196801 – 196812 35.53″ 29 -0.58″
197401 – 197412 35.60″ 30 -0.51″
200701 – 200712 35.62″ 31 -0.49″
199201 – 199212 35.74″ 32 -0.37″
198701 – 198712 35.93″ 33 -0.18″
198801 – 198812 36.01″ 34 -0.10″
197901 – 197912 36.16″ 35 0.05″
197701 – 197712 36.30″ 36 0.19″
198101 – 198112 36.94″ 37 0.83″
197301 – 197312 37.03″ 38 0.92″
199401 – 199412 37.18″ 39 1.07″
195701 – 195712 37.36″ 40 1.25″
198001 – 198012 37.38″ 41 1.27″
195901 – 195912 37.75″ 42 1.64″
197001 – 197012 37.77″ 43 1.66″
200401 – 200412 37.81″ 44 1.70″
196701 – 196712 37.99″ 45 1.88″
198201 – 198212 38.08″ 46 1.97″
201401 – 201412 38.34″ 47 2.23″
197201 – 197212 38.45″ 48 2.34″
197801 – 197812 38.52″ 49 2.41″
196501 – 196512 38.84″ 50 2.73″
195001 – 195012 39.42″ 51 3.31″
195101 – 195112 39.45″ 52 3.34″
201601 – 201612 40.25″ 53 4.14″
200101 – 200112 40.38″ 54 4.27″
198501 – 198512 40.60″ 55 4.49″
200901 – 200912 40.79″ 56 4.68″
199101 – 199112 40.83″ 57 4.72″
200601 – 200612 41.42″ 58 5.31″
201301 – 201312 41.61″ 59 5.50″
197501 – 197512 42.10″ 60 5.99″
200001 – 200012 42.52″ 61 6.41″
199301 – 199312 42.58″ 62 6.47″
198601 – 198612 42.63″ 63 6.52″
195401 – 195412 43.28″ 64 7.17″
201101 – 201112 44.00″ 65 7.89″
199001 – 199012 44.98″ 66 8.87″
200801 – 200812 47.01″ 67 10.90″

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Forecast Discussion

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Marquette
Marquette
Detroit
Detroit
Gaylord
Gaylord
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

Fair weather should prevail through the near term although there will be a slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday. For today and tonight…sfc high continues to bring fair weather with low humidity.

Temperatures will be a couple degrees higher than yesterday as air mass modifies and upper heights continue to rise. An inverted trough moves into northern and central Lower Michigan Monday and Tuesday but forcing is weak and atmosphere is still dry as seen in forecast soundings so Superblend POPs were cut back for both days and restricted to the far northeast forecast area. .

LONG TERM…

The main challenge in the long term deals with the timing and strength of any impacts with the storm system for the end of the week. The models are in relatively agreement in showing a digging mid level shortwave tracking into and through the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday.

The new High Res Euro is stronger with this feature compared to the GFS closes off the system in Wisconsin before tracking it through Michigan. Either way the models show stronger dynamics coupled with an unseasonably moist airmass in place which supports high POPs. With instability around and a mid level speed max accompanying the passage of this system…organized convection and areas of heavy rain appear possible.

Will continue to feature thunderstorms in the forecast…especially when the best lift arrives Thursday afternoon into the night. Once the storm passes off to the east…a cooler airmass will arrive from the Canadian Prairies. Thus the warmer than normal temperatures will give way to cooler than normal values for the end of the week and into the weekend.


3 on "Historical Weather Comparisons"

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Mark (East Lansing)
Just got home from the reunion down vu Concord. Absolutely perfect weather. Low humidity. Warm, almost hot during that day, and really cool at night. Even watched the ISS flyover last night. Not one mosquito. I think I’ve swatted maybe 2 or 3 mosquitos this year.
Sandy (Hudsonville)

It was a beautiful summer day!! I hope everyone got out & enjoyed it. 🙂

Andy W

Hey Mark, all the mosquitos are up here in the UP with us right now!! They are thick here!

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