Another day of heat and grass shriveling beneath our feet. The corn in the fields must be sucking the humidity out of the air – it is growing but struggling. It is amazing how well the new hybrids can stand up to the dry conditions. I fear even their mighty efforts may fall if they don’t get rain soon.
A nearly stationary front will remain over the region through tonight. This system will lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A cold front will push in from the west on Thursday. As a result…there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around over the next couple of days. Overall much of the region will still see unseasonably warm temperatures.
It will be 10° cooler north of Grand Rapids with the sweltering heat remaining in place from Kent county to the south. The CPC models are still showing over an inch of rain for the remainder of the week over my southern forecast area (Kent County to the south).
Looking at the HRRR models (see the Futurecast) the main area of rain and storm development should be south of Grand Rapids today. Lets hope so, we need it as we have had only a quarter in of rain in Allegan County which puts us a couple inches below the seasonal normal.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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The frontal currently near Big Rapids and Alma is forecasted to build westward further into the CWA. This will make for challenges with the temperatures for today. Overall it looks like closer to seasonable values to the northeast of Grand Rapids…but still very warm further south toward Kalamazoo.
Yesterday we saw a 17 degree difference from Big Rapids to Lansing in the high temperatures. This front has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the past few days. Much of the activity has been just north of it. With an unstable airmass remaining in place along with mid to upper level lift persisting into Wednesday…will maintain the scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Deep layer shear drops off into tonight so it appears the risk for severe weather is somewhat limited. With the flow decreasing along with a high pwat airmass in place…locally heavy rain will continue to be a hazard. There is some potential for low clouds to move in from the northeast this morning. For now it looks like these lower clouds will not persist through the day. Thus the temperature may be slow to climb to the north of this frontal zone today. .
A fairly active wx pattern is anticipated Thursday night through Saturday with several chances for convection. There really won`t be any airmass change behind the weakening cold front for Thursday night and Friday when it will remain quite warm and humid.
The upper level pattern will become more zonal and we expect that some showers and a few thunderstorms will linger Thursday night into Friday. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come this weekend with a stronger cold front and low pressure system. Moderate to potentially strong instability could develop out ahead of the front and this will largely be contingent on how much daytime heating occurs out ahead of it.
There is also some uncertainty on timing of frontal passage as well with 00z ecmwf guidance continuing to suggest that the stronger cold front will not come through until Sunday. A significantly cooler and drier airmass will begin to advect in behind this system late in the weekend into early next week when high temperatures will only reach the 70`s.