Hot South – Cooler North – Chances of Storms

Hot South – Cooler North – Chances of Storms

posted in: Weather Forecast | 17

Another day of heat and grass shriveling beneath our feet.  The corn in the fields must be sucking the humidity out of the air – it is growing but struggling.  It is amazing how well the new hybrids can stand up to the dry conditions.  I fear even their mighty efforts may fall if they don’t get rain soon.

A nearly stationary front will remain over the region through tonight. This system will lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A cold front will push in from the west on Thursday. As a result…there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around over the next couple of days. Overall much of the region will still see unseasonably warm temperatures.

It will be 10° cooler north of Grand Rapids with the sweltering heat remaining in place from Kent county to the south.  The CPC models are still showing over an inch of rain for the remainder of the week over my southern forecast area (Kent County to the south).

Looking at the HRRR models (see the Futurecast) the main area of rain and storm development should be south of Grand Rapids today.  Lets hope so, we need it as we have had only a quarter in of rain in Allegan County which puts us a couple inches below the seasonal normal.

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Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Point - Lift
Dew Point – Lift
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

The frontal currently near Big Rapids and Alma is forecasted to build westward further into the CWA. This will make for challenges with the temperatures for today. Overall it looks like closer to seasonable values to the northeast of Grand Rapids…but still very warm further south toward Kalamazoo.

Yesterday we saw a 17 degree difference from Big Rapids to Lansing in the high temperatures. This front has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the past few days. Much of the activity has been just north of it. With an unstable airmass remaining in place along with mid to upper level lift persisting into Wednesday…will maintain the scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Deep layer shear drops off into tonight so it appears the risk for severe weather is somewhat limited. With the flow decreasing along with a high pwat airmass in place…locally heavy rain will continue to be a hazard. There is some potential for low clouds to move in from the northeast this morning. For now it looks like these lower clouds will not persist through the day. Thus the temperature may be slow to climb to the north of this frontal zone today. .

LONG TERM…

A fairly active wx pattern is anticipated Thursday night through Saturday with several chances for convection. There really won`t be any airmass change behind the weakening cold front for Thursday night and Friday when it will remain quite warm and humid.

The upper level pattern will become more zonal and we expect that some showers and a few thunderstorms will linger Thursday night into Friday. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come this weekend with a stronger cold front and low pressure system. Moderate to potentially strong instability could develop out ahead of the front and this will largely be contingent on how much daytime heating occurs out ahead of it.

There is also some uncertainty on timing of frontal passage as well with 00z ecmwf guidance continuing to suggest that the stronger cold front will not come through until Sunday. A significantly cooler and drier airmass will begin to advect in behind this system late in the weekend into early next week when high temperatures will only reach the 70`s.


17 on "Hot South – Cooler North – Chances of Storms"

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GunLakeDeb

Well, I was all excited about that blob of rain near Milwaukee; but I see it moving northward. I guess it’s another day of dragging sprinklers around 🙁

Mookie

93 in GR yesterday, 95 in Lansing! Boy, the NWS was much too cool in their forecast Slim alluded to a few days ago. GR is now +3.5 above average for June and climbing. WOOD’s 8-day forecast has nothing but warmer than average temps continuing.

Mark (East Lansing)

The corn is behind schedule here. In the field nearest to our house, it’s barely out of the ground.

Sandy (Hudsonville)

We didn’t get a drop of rain last night. Things are looking pretty dry out there.

Barry in Zeeland

Well, northern Wisconsin is having no problem getting rain and storms! What is this now, 4 or 5 days in a row? Remember years ago when we to used to get storms? Ha. Just kidding, but it sure seems that way sometimes.

Mookie

Looks like GR has unofficially hit 90 degrees again. Third straight day in the 90’s!

SlimJim

That is correct GR now has reached 90° for 3 straight days now. First time since last June. But if the CPC outlook is right we look to cool down for the end of the month.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
and
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
So cooler days look to be ahead
SlimJim

Mark (East Lansing)

Fourth straight day in Lansing. 🙂

INDY

Temps in the 70’s will be great yeaaaa! INDY!

Jack Edwards

GR…GRIFFINS….ARE
CALDERCUP….CHAMPS!!!!

Barry in Zeeland

YES!! We were there! Unbelievably loud tonight. Has to be one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen.

Jack Edwards

LUCKY…YOU.
I watched on TV…My Brother & His Wife Were There Tonight,as well as Friends of Mine.
Parade Details….When I GET Them.
I Think It’s on Thursday…Specifics..2-Follow

ROCKY (Rockford)

GO GFIFFINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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