Hope you all had a enjoyable long holiday weekend.
Today I have a lot to talk about – first off the more active weather pattern in the central Atlantic. On August 29 I was talking about tropical disturbance 10 which could have become Irma but didn’t turn into a tropical storm or hurricane – it plagued southern Florida until it moved up the coast of the Carolina’s then out to sea.
Now we have the real Irma chugging its way towards the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico (where there are hurricane warnings up) and the Dominican Republic and has the possibility of reaching southern Florida by Sunday. Below is the current location (yellow) and possible track – red is where there are hurricane warnings the M denotes major hurricane.
The second graphic shows possible tropical development, (the orange X’s) – number 2 has a 50% chance of cyclone formation which may not be good news for southern Texas if it moves northward. We will have to keep an eye on this one.
Next we have the NAM (through Friday) and GFS outlooks – not seeing much in temperatures above 80° in the long term.
Much cooler temperatures are expected the rest of the week with highs in the 60s. With these cooler temperatures will be scattered rain showers especially near Lake Michigan. Drier conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 70s by Sunday and Monday.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Solid batch of rain moving eastward through the northern forecast area early this morning. A few lightning strikes were detected farther north towards far northwest Lower Michigan. Operational HRRR seems to be depicting evolution of this precipitation quite well.
Scattered rainshowers are expected to continue today with thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening as noted in the SPC Day 1 outlook. By Wednesday morning, northwesterly flow will have shifted to northerly, keeping most of the lake enhanced rain showers pinned closer to the lakeshore.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, far southwest Lower Michigan see an uptick in activity as an upper PV max dives south across Lake Michigan and likely invigorates lake effect showers with some thunder also possible. .
Our only chance of rain looks like Thursday night and even that`s not a high chance. The deep upper trough that is developing currently will begin to move east and lift out Thursday night, but not before one last strong short wave rotates through the flow. Scattered showers are possible throughout the night as the short waves moves across Lower Michigan.
After that, high pressure will build in from Canada and several sunny days are expected, along with cooler than normal temperatures. The best chance of frost is Thursday night over the northern row of counties, but will depend on any showers and associated cloud cover. Lows through the period will be in the 40s. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday before climbing into the 70s Sunday and Monday. The southern cwa remains abnormally dry and any rain we get Thursday night likely won`t do anything to mitigate it.