Irma – Jose – Katia

Irma – Jose – Katia

posted in: Weather Forecast | 11

We now have tropical storms Jose and Katia to throw into the mix of an active weather pattern in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.  Our main concern is Irma which is still forecast to move up towards Florida by the end of the week – the GFS has Irma taking a sharp turn to the north as it approaches the keys and then moving up the east coast into Georgia and the Carolina’s – still a bit early to tell for sure as these storms have a mind of their own.

Katia is expected to drift into Mexico.  Jose is expected to turn into a hurricane by early tomorrow morning – below are the current graphics from the National Hurricane Center.

katia

irma2

jose


Irma is a Cat 5 hurricane and will have devastating effects. Islands under hurricane warning include Aguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin/St. Maarten, St. Barts, the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti, Guadeloupe, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

In Florida Miami-Dade County will start evacuating special-needs residents Wednesday, and may announce other evacuations soon, Mayor Carlos Gimenez said.
Schools and county offices will be closed Thursday and Friday. With Harvey’s havoc on their minds, Floridians brace for Irma.  Monroe County, which includes the Florida Keys, was ordering visitors to evacuate by sunrise Wednesday, and residents should begin to evacuate 12 hours later.
After declaring a state of emergency across Florida, Gov. Rick Scott said President Donald Trump had “offered the full resources of the federal government.”  Scott also ordered 7,000 National Guard troops to report for duty by Friday morning.
GFS Estimated Rainfall
GFS Estimated Rainfall
NAM Wind Speed (through Saturday)
NAM Wind Speed (through Saturday)

hrr11

 For Michigan our fall-like weather pattern continues.

Cool and unsettled weather will continue through Thursday night with highs generally in the lower 60s. Showers and some thunderstorms will be particularly common near the lakeshore and over Lake Michigan. Dry conditions are then expected from Friday through Tuesday with highs climbing back into the 70s by Sunday.

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Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rain Forecast
Rain Forecast
Cloud Cover
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SHORT TERM..

No changes to the previous forecast. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be the rule today and Thursday in agreement with SPC outlooks. Activity over and near Lake Michigan may be a bit more persistent and is expected to intensify early Thursday morning with the approach of an upper PV max that should grow the marine boundary layer and raise convective instability.

As this PV max rotates around the sharp upper trough Thursday, we expect precipitation and thunderstorm chances to overspread the entire forecast area. The upper trough slowly exits to the east on Friday. There may be residual lake effect precipitation curling into far southwest lower Michigan early in the day, but this shouldn`t last long with increasingly anticyclonic low level flow building into the area with surface high pressure. .

LONG TERM…

We continue to expect a prolonged period of dry and increasingly mild temperatures through the period. The upper trough that will be plaguing the region through Thu will have moved out by the beginning of the long term on Friday night. This will be replaced by a somewhat flat, yet strong upper ridge that will build over the area.

This ridge will not go far during the period as Hurricane Irma, the departing trough to the east, and another trough to our north will all push to keep the upper ridging in play. Temperatures will initially be rather cool with the residual cool air mass holding over the area initially. A warmer air mass will eventually advect into the area as the sfc ridge slips SE, and a WSW low level flow takes shape.


11 on "Irma – Jose – Katia"

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GunLakeDeb
I like those NAM and GFS forecasts for Irma – I’d much rather see Florida on the west side of a massive hurricane, than the east? Hopefully, the cooler water of the Atlantic (as opposed to the 85 degree water of the Gulf) will take Irma down a notch or… Read more »
Barry in Zeeland
I’ve always wondered what would happen if you drop a nuke in the middle of a hurricane? Would it be blown apart? And then reform again? Seems it would almost be worth it to nuke a hurricane when it’s in the middlle of the Atlantic if theres a chance it… Read more »
SlimJim

I am not sure what would happen but you would be adding heat and energy along with radiation so not sure that would be a good idea.
SlimJim

Gun Lake Deb
SlimJim is probably right – adding radioactivity to the mix is a bad idea…. but what about Dry Ice? Tons and tons of dry ice might freeze it out? I have a real vested interest in squelching this thing – this website shows Irma sitting in my condo driveway by… Read more »
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Let’s hope they are wrong & it turns & goes out to sea.

Barry in Zeeland

Massive solar flare today! They are calling it a once in a decade flare. More info at spaceweather.com. Should be good chance of northern lights coming up!

Jack Edwards

Sun Unleashes Monster Solar Flare, Strongest in a Decade
Space.com‎ – 3 hours ago

Jack Edwards

@SPACE CADETS………
Latest Forecast = in 43 minutes, the Aurora will be Very Active

Jack Edwards
Sandy (Hudsonville)

BEAUTIFUL!! Thanks for sharing.

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