Irma – Rain for SW Michigan

Irma – Rain for SW Michigan

posted in: Weather Forecast | 2

Our three hurricanes continue their progress on their merry way creating havoc in their wake – Irma is still a Cat 5 with sustained winds of 180 mph – Katia (sustained winds of 90mph) and Jose (sustained winds of 80mph) are Cat 1.

Below is a video from Fox news with hurricane hunter Richard Henning flying through the eye of Irma.

Here is an video of Irma’s eye from the space station.

irma animation

and finally the track…

102752_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind 97

The GFS and NAM are still pretty consistent on the track as shown below.  The eye makes landfall in South Carolina.  A deviation further west could be devastating for Florida and Georgia, it is a very close call as of now…

GFS rainfall forecast through next Wednesday
GFS rainfall forecast through next Wednesday
Nam rainfall through Sunday
NAM rainfall through Sunday

For Lake Michigan we have increase chances of waterspouts – I kept an eye on our lake cams yesterday and saw a lot of dark clouds with rain in the distance – but no spouts.

We have a chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Point Forecasts

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Forecast Discussion

(Click Images to Enlarge)

Marquette
Marquette
Gaylord
Gaylord
Detroit
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids

Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall Forecast
Cloud Cover
Cloud Cover
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

GOES-16 water vapor channels currently show a deep ribbon of upper potential vorticity spreading southward from the MN arrowhead region towards southern Lake Michigan. This ribbon will then shift eastward today, gradually spreading precipitation eastward with it today and tonight. Flow aloft becomes increasingly cyclonic on the back side of a slowly exiting upper trough.

This combined with residual convective instability over Lake Michigan suggests that showers and possible thunderstorms could persist much of tonight over Lake Michigan and this activity could align into a dominant band that hooks southeast into far southwest Lower Michigan, including Van Buren County, through early Friday morning.

Have mentioned patchy frost Saturday morning over our northern zones. Clear and dry conditions will be established with light winds due to high pressure settling over the area. .

LONG TERM…

We continue to expect that a dry and increasingly mild period will take place for the rest of the upcoming weekend, and into early next week. We do have some small chances of rain for the Tue time frame as we will see a front dropping in, and maybe even a small chance of some rain on the far NW periphery of the eventual remnants of Irma.

The state will be in the sweet spot for nice weather coming out of the short term and lasting through the rest of the weekend. A fairly robust upper ridge will start out over the area in the long term on Sat night. This results from lows to our NE, NW, and S (Irma). It eventually gets squeezed a bit, but should hold through at least Mon.

It is possible we could see some moisture on the far NW periphery of Irma sneak up over the SE portion of the area beginning on Tue. This will be tough to occur as it will have to survive a trip over the Appalachians. It still is not out of the question, especially as a trough tries to dig in from the NW, and draw some of the moisture into the area. We have small chcs over the SE to account for this.

The rest of the period on Wed is in question then as we wait to see what Irma will do. The front that was shown to approach the area for Tue now looks like it will wash out before it gets here due to the strong ridging that will be in place.


2 on "Irma – Rain for SW Michigan"

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Barry in Zeeland

Northern lights!!! KP is up to 8!!! We will be seeing them tonight!!

Mark (East Lansing)

My niece lives in Winter Park. She wisely decided to get out. She drove to Atlanta to stay with friends. It took her 11 hours to get there. She took Old US 27. She said I-75 looked like a parking lot.

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