Very dry out out there – our last decent rain was on July 12 when we received 1.5 inches – since the 15th we have received only .17 of an inch of rain. We had 2.84 inches for the month of July in Otsego bringing us to 10.41 for the summer thus far and 28.78 for the year. These are from my weather station.
We started the month of July on the wet side as seen in the graphic to the left (click to enlarge) some areas did see a lot of rain.
At work (my real job), the family of geese who live there have been wandering around looking for cool spots – there is a pond on site but it is in the sun all day – they decided to relax in the parking lot in a small puddle from the sprinkler system. When it rains they love it and parade around the lawns… These geese are protected, we are a globally secure site, no guns or weapons are allowed on the property.
We are not getting the weather graphics from the NWS offices in Marquette, Gaylord and Detroit – must be they are still brewing the coffee – I will get them up when they become available.
A weakening cold front will drop down from the northwest today and into Lower Michigan where it will dissipate. This system will trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms. A deepening low pressure system will move in from the west Thursday into Friday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of this storm. A cooler airmass will flow in behind this departing system for the beginning of the weekend. Hopefully we will get some soaking rains from this. Below is the latest GFS guess for rain totals through Monday.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Marquette, Gaylord and Detroit Graphics unavailable
The main challenge in the short term deals with the timing and strength of the thunderstorms. We are starting the morning off with a few thunderstorms around the region. On area of storms was to the northwest of Muskegon…with other storms further north into Northern Lower MI.
The overall forecasted trend supports weakening the cells through the early morning hours as they track east southeast. The atmosphere then becomes more unstable as we head into the afternoon…especially inland. New storms should form especially with a frontal zone dropping down from the northwest. Those storms should weaken tonight as the instability diminishes. Overall through tonight and into early Thursday the deep layer shear remains weak. Thus the risk for organized convection looks low.
A greater risk for strong/severe storms exists later Thursday and into early Friday. The atmosphere becomes rather unstable and deep layer shear increases. An unseasonably strong mid level wave digs down supporting synoptic lift. All this does support organized convection to some degree. How much will depend on the amount of instability present.
Right now it looks like the best lift moves in at night. Low level helicity values do increase Thu night…along with the low level CAPE. So an elevated risk for a tornado may evolve. There is a trend in the NAM and GFS to slow the surface front down for Friday. If this happens a risk for strong/severe storms could occur then as well especially with a favorable deep layer shear profile in place. .
The medium range models remain in remarkable synch with the evolution of the long wave pattern. It`s a pattern that they locked onto several days ago. A couple of short wave will travel through a long wave trough that`s anchored over the Midwest and we`ll see cooler than normal conditions through the long term.
The first short wave will be exiting the state Friday night, but we`re still likely to see some lingering showers. Subsidence behind the wave will lead to a very comfortable Saturday with plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid 70s and low humidity as dewpoints will be mostly in the 40s.
Both the gfs and ecmwf show a couple of minor waves moving across the cwa Saturday night and Sunday and we may see some light rain with it, but confidence is fairly low on this. The better chance of rain will come Sunday night and Monday as weak low pressure moves east from Il to Oh. The rest of the period should be dry.