Sitting at my desk at work yesterday I was keeping an eye on our HRRR radar and saw hints of thunderstorm formation. Looked out the window, yup, the clouds were starting to billow. I told the engineer in the cubicle next to me we would see rain in about 20 minutes (about 4:30pm) 20 minutes later it started to pour. The storm formed right over Allegan and moved towards Otsego. We received .17 inch which brings our total to .24 for the month.
I left work at 5pm and ran into the rain about three miles NW of Otsego – made for a good car wash – after the rain the steam was rising off the road and the humidity skyrocketed.
As I was watching the cloud formations a family of geese happened to walk by (the feature image). This family comes to nest every year, we have a wetland and pond to the east of our facility.
The storm prediction center has us under a slight risk for storm today. The day is starting off with scattered thunderstorms across Southern Lake Michigan. These were forming along a warm front. This warm front will track northeastward through the region today. As a result, there will be some thunderstorms around. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning could accompany the stronger storms.
A warm front developing in Northern Indiana will lift northward today through Southwest Lower Michigan. A cold front located in the Upper Plains will weaken as it tracks east today and pushes through the region later tonight and into Thursday. As a result… the warm weather will with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A weak area of high pressure moves in for Friday. Then a potentially stronger low pressure system is forecasted to track through the Great Lakes Region over the weekend.
Chances of rain are 50% today and 70% tonight mainly Grand Rapids and to the south.
We may reach 90° again today dependent on the rain and cloud cover which would bring us to seven 90° days so for the summer (in Otsego here at the Coffee Shoppe).
Today and Tonight: A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists for the region mainly for tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary risks. Frequent lightning and localized very heavy rainfall could accompany the stronger storms. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. .
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…
Thursday through Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Friday. We will need to monitor the potential storm system that is forecasted over the weekend. Impacts are possible from this system. An elevated risk for hazardous marine conditions and perhaps severe thunderstorms exists. .
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… Spotter activation may be required tonight.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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The main challenge in the short term deals with the potential for showers and thunderstorms along with the high temperatures. Slow moving thunderstorms were developing across southern Lake Michigan to start the morning. These are forming along the front that pushed southwestward through the CWA last night.
This feature is somewhat further southwest than forecasted. Overall the boundary lifts northward today as a warm front. This feature will act as the main focus for the thunderstorms today. There should be some around given the moisture…lift and instability that will be present.
Will keep the POPs relatively high for today. Well above normal temperatures should continue…especially south of the advancing warm front. With PWAT values climbing to over 1.5 inches and a slow movement to the storms expected…localized heavy rain will be possible.
Tonight the cold front pushes in from the west. This feature will be weakening. Deep layer shear does not look all that strong…but with some dry air in the mid levels along with decent instability…some strong/severe storms could occur.
It is worth noting that models vary considerably on how much rain we will see tonight and have not shown good run to run continuity. Some of the high res models give us almost no rain. For that reason…I did downplay POPs slightly. The front will still be around on Thursday…but looks to impact mainly the eastern zones. Instability does increase during the day…so will keep the potential for thunderstorms going with the highest POPs east. .
The upper pattern will transition from quasi-zonal to a trough over the Great Lakes this weekend. Friday night and Saturday night will be favored time frames for showers and storms, although Saturday night looks to be the more likely time frame.
A weak cold front is progd to move through Friday night. Given the steady southwest flow aloft, there should be available moisture to work with. However, this frontal boundary is pretty weak and most locations may remain dry. A much stronger front is progd to move through Saturday night/Sunday morning with h8 temps falling almost 10c by Sunday night.
This front will set up a strong chance of storms Saturday night along/ahead of the front. Shear values near 40kts are progd ahead of the front. However, the overnight timing of the convection may limit the severe potential. High pressure will quickly move over the state Monday and Tuesday before another weak low is progd to move across Lake Michigan late Tuesday bringing another chance of rain. Temperatures will reach the mid 80s Saturday, but then begin falling with highs around 80 Sunday and mid 70s Monday and Tuesday.