Rain!!!

Rain!!!

posted in: Weather Forecast | 15

Looking at the radar and Futurecast we are go to see some wet stuff falling from the sky today is southern Michigan.  Like I said yesterday we have seen only a tenth of an inch or so since mid July.

Showers and storms are popping up in Van Buren, Kalamazoo and Allegan Counties (at 7am) – this is a good sign of things to come.  There is more rain across the Lake so we should see some much needed rain today and tomorrow.

An unseasonably strong low pressure system will track eastward through the Great Lakes region tonight through Friday. Numerous showers and even some thunderstorms will accompany the passage of this system. The warm and humid airmass will give way to a cooler airmass as the system passes off to the east. A cooler than normal weekend is forecasted for the area.

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Point Forecasts

Gaylord














Forecast Discussion

(Click Images to Enlarge)

The NWS offices in the state (Marquette, Detroit, Gaylord and now Grand Rapids) have been having issues with their graphics updates this week, not sure what has been going on.  I added the GFS products to show the cooling trend through mid month – also appears to be wet….

Rain Forecast through Midnight
Rain Forecast through Midnight
Cloud Cover Forecast
Cloud Cover Forecast
Dew Points
Dew Points
Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts

GFS Forecast through August 19

GFS Rain forecast through August 19
GFS Rain forecast through August 19
Convective Precipitation
Convective Precipitation
Temperature Forecast through August 19
Temperature Forecast through August 19
Dew Points
Dew Points

SHORT TERM…

The storm system developing in IA is shown to deepen considerably as it tracks into the Great Lakes region tonight. Models are in reasonable agreement on this. This unseasonably strong system will tap a moist and unstable airmass to trigger several rounds of showers and thunderstorms here in Southwest Lower MI into Friday Night. Already we are seeing a few showers and thunderstorms to start the day so the atmosphere is set. As the synoptic lift moves in this afternoon evening…showers and thunderstorms should be on the increase from west to east.

A low level jet moves in from the west this evening and that should enhance the storms. Initially deep layer shear is weak to day…but increases later on which could support organized convection. There is favorable low level helicity tonight…but the low level CAPE is shown to be weak. Will need to monitor trends closely.

A mid level dry slot moves in for Friday but the wrap around moisture arrives for the afternoon and evening. This will feature lake enhanced moisture so POPs were raised considerably. .

LONG TERM…

We`re settling into a period of much cooler and wetter weather through the long term. Highs each day will be in the 75 to 80 range with lows mainly in the 50s. The models continue to advertise broad troughiness across the Midwest and that will lead to unsettled weather as short waves rotate through the cwa.

Both the ecmwf and gfs show a low developing over the Missouri Valley early Sunday and then moving east across the flattened upper trough. The ecmwf is quicker with the low and more in phase with its upper support, so we`re leaning toward that solution. That means showers are in the forecast from Saturday night through Monday. Quasi zonal flow develops after that for a couple of days until the next short wave carves out the upper trough again Thursday. Mostly dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.


15 on "Rain!!!"

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SlimJim

Just heard a strange sound here at my house. Yes, for the first time in a long time the sound of thunder was heard here. Getting some very light rain here now (so far not much)
SlimJim

SlimJim
It looks like Death Valley, CA set a new record for the hottest month there. The mean was 107.4° (+5.2°)breaking the old record of 107.2° set in 1917. The hottest day was 127° on the 7th and the coolest was 89° on the 5th there were 3 nights where the… Read more »
*SS*

Heard one rumble of thunder… That was it not a drop of rain. That was around 8.

SlimJim
Here at my house I recorded 0.42″ of rain with the thundershowers this morning. That already gives today the most one day rain fall since June 23rd. Now the next question is will the 87° at GRR be the warmest we get the rest of this year? With the upcoming… Read more »
*SS*

Slim…do you think the rain hangs on tomorrow on other side of the state?

Barry in Zeeland
0.43″ of rain here, more than the past several weeks combined! Still very humid out though. Tried splitting some wood earlier, but it’s just to humid. I think the dew point was at 70 when I started. For the summer, I think we’ve had 8 90 degree days here. No… Read more »
Sandy (Hudsonville)

We had hail, thunder, lightning & heavy rain. Now the sun keeps trying to shine.

SlimJim
In our area, I use 85° as the threshold of a very warm day (other parts of the country it would be different as 81° at Marquette and the Sault and 90° in Nashville, TN) any way here in Grand Rapids we have had 5 days of 90° or better… Read more »
*SS*

Hey what is that wet stuff falling from the sky!!! Getting some heavy rain here right now. Grass, garden & plants drinking it up!!!

*SS*

Sun is out again….

SlimJim

After the second thundershower of the day the sun is back out here. Temp is down to 75° With the 0.42” of rain in the first thundershower and 0.15” in this second one I am now at 0.57” for the day so far.
SlimJim

Mark (East Lansing)

C’mon, rain!

A buddy of mine picked a bad time to spend the week on Lake Washington outside of Seattle. They’re talking all-time highs out there. The sad thing is that most everyone does have air conditioning. All the more reason to stay in the lake, I guess.

Mark (East Lansing)
That figures. We had a nice looking cell heading right for the Lansing area. Then the east half of the cell just seemed to disappear. My folks live north of town and they’re getting hammered right now. Us? One rumble of thunder and just enough raindrops to dampen the ground.
Jack Edwards
UPDATE 1: NOAA Expects the significant activity to begin towards the middle of the storm watch: between the 12th and 24th hour of the watch. Charged Particles from Sun heading towards Earth.     First 24 hours: 6 Kp possible.     Final 24 hours. 5 Kp possible. When does the Aurora… Read more »
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