Looking at the radar and Futurecast we are go to see some wet stuff falling from the sky today is southern Michigan. Like I said yesterday we have seen only a tenth of an inch or so since mid July.
Showers and storms are popping up in Van Buren, Kalamazoo and Allegan Counties (at 7am) – this is a good sign of things to come. There is more rain across the Lake so we should see some much needed rain today and tomorrow.
An unseasonably strong low pressure system will track eastward through the Great Lakes region tonight through Friday. Numerous showers and even some thunderstorms will accompany the passage of this system. The warm and humid airmass will give way to a cooler airmass as the system passes off to the east. A cooler than normal weekend is forecasted for the area.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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The NWS offices in the state (Marquette, Detroit, Gaylord and now Grand Rapids) have been having issues with their graphics updates this week, not sure what has been going on. I added the GFS products to show the cooling trend through mid month – also appears to be wet….
GFS Forecast through August 19
The storm system developing in IA is shown to deepen considerably as it tracks into the Great Lakes region tonight. Models are in reasonable agreement on this. This unseasonably strong system will tap a moist and unstable airmass to trigger several rounds of showers and thunderstorms here in Southwest Lower MI into Friday Night. Already we are seeing a few showers and thunderstorms to start the day so the atmosphere is set. As the synoptic lift moves in this afternoon evening…showers and thunderstorms should be on the increase from west to east.
A low level jet moves in from the west this evening and that should enhance the storms. Initially deep layer shear is weak to day…but increases later on which could support organized convection. There is favorable low level helicity tonight…but the low level CAPE is shown to be weak. Will need to monitor trends closely.
A mid level dry slot moves in for Friday but the wrap around moisture arrives for the afternoon and evening. This will feature lake enhanced moisture so POPs were raised considerably. .
We`re settling into a period of much cooler and wetter weather through the long term. Highs each day will be in the 75 to 80 range with lows mainly in the 50s. The models continue to advertise broad troughiness across the Midwest and that will lead to unsettled weather as short waves rotate through the cwa.
Both the ecmwf and gfs show a low developing over the Missouri Valley early Sunday and then moving east across the flattened upper trough. The ecmwf is quicker with the low and more in phase with its upper support, so we`re leaning toward that solution. That means showers are in the forecast from Saturday night through Monday. Quasi zonal flow develops after that for a couple of days until the next short wave carves out the upper trough again Thursday. Mostly dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.