Another wet night for Otsego/Plainwell. We received .96 since midnight bringing our total to 3.55 inches for the month which is right about average for the month of June, so with almost two weeks for the month we should be above average by the 30th.
The feature image is Gene Kelly dancing in the rain (loved that movie). The clip is above with Debbie Reynolds.
If you want to see rainfall totals for the state go to the Wundermap at Weather Underground click on weather stations and precipitation. These are the PWS’s (personal weather stations) – you can click on each station and go to their page – mine is KMIOTSEG6. There is a lot of chart data and you can look at various dates for weather info.
After numerous rounds of thunderstorms over the last couple days for many locations, conditions dry out this afternoon after a few spotty showers moving through this morning. Monday and Tuesday will feature some scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, but much of the time will be dry. Active weather returns for the second half of the week with more rounds of thunderstorms possible.
In reference to Slims article yesterday – looking at climate data over the past 100 years (which isn’t a good judge of basing opinions on global warmth based on the age of the Earth) the U.S. has many more crops aspirating into the air from the vast fields of corn and soybeans and much more concrete from the buildings in the cities – and yes, I believe putting weather instruments at airports and the heart of the cities isn’t indicative of good climate data.
Downtown Grand Rapids can be much warmer than Hopkins. The concrete holds and radiates more heat. If humans are responsible for global warming I believe it would be from the examples above. Sadly this is where weather data is collected and yes this would indicate a warming climate.
With data slim to none pre-1900 I don’t think we need to panic that we are all going to live in a different world due to melting ice caps and water rising. I did a post a couple years ago (I will see if I can dig that up) from reports and data from paleontologists which showed the rising and falling of temperatures over several millennium. We had a mini ice age in the 1800s and the dust bowl in the 1930s.
This is just variability of the climate, we have cool and warm periods and I believe this is due to earth features not man. A major volcano eruption can cool temperatures around the world. The atmosphere is like ocean currents, we try to predict what is going to happen past three days weather-wise but our predictions are guesses at best.
So, is the climate warming – yes, but I think it is just a period which could change over the next year, 10 years or 100 years. Who knows? Only God knows, we can only guess – future data can be skewed to say whatever we want it to say – we just have to wait and see.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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(click images to enlarge)
Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down this morning, but locally heavy rainfall is still a threat through about 14z. Some areas picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain during the early morning hours and an additional 1 inch or more of rain is possible in the heaviest storms through mid morning.
Most areas will stay dry this afternoon aside with a widely scattered light shower. There will be almost zero instability and the GFS is showing a very dry sounding. Daytime mixing will yield wind gusts to around 25 mph, so a breezy afternoon looks likely.
There may be a few hundred J/kg of CAPE on Monday along with increasing deep layer RH to afford some scattered showers and isolated storms outside of the lake shadow with west winds at H850 and the surface. POPs aren`t zero at the lakeshore but the precipitation will likely be focused inland.
Tuesday features a 40- 50 kt mid level jet core over the region (especially southern Lower) but even MUCAPE will struggle to get over a few hundred J/kg. The soundings also look drier. If there are any storms that manage to pop, some gusty winds may occur given the mid level jet and dry adiabatic lapse rates to 5k ft. && .
We continue to expect a fairly unsettled weather pattern in the long term with multiple chances of rain through the period. Rain chances early in the week should end Tue evening for the area, with the area likely staying dry through most of Wed. The upper troughing expected to be in place early in the week will slip east of the area. This will bring anti-cyclonic flow aloft back over the area by Wed.
The break in the rain chances looks to be short in nature, with rain chances returning as early as Wed evening. This results from the upper ridge to our west building in over the area and it dampens a bit. The heat and humidity will push in via a healthy low level jet, and spark some showers and storms.
The rain chances will continue into Fri when the associated cold front extending from a low across Ontario pushes through the area. Sat was looking like it would be another dry day, and we will keep it that way for now. We are expecting some ridging to build in the wake of the front that comes through Friday.
Some of the models are holding up the front a bit, possibly accounting for a tropical system lifting north and holding the front up from sinking too far south. Way too much uncertainty with the multiple ingredients to do anything drastic for now, so we will hold on to the dry Sat forecast. Cooler temps look likely behind the Fri cold front.
Below are the CPC guesses through the end of the month showing slightly cooler than normal temperatures and above normal chances of rain. Beyond that it appears we will have normal weather conditions for the first couple weeks of July.