First off, thanks for the birthday wishes yesterday – we went to The Club Car Grille in Alamo for dinner – good food and fast service. I turned 62 and looking forward to an early retirement in the next year or so or less (insurance permitting). The insurance dilemma in the U.S. makes one want to keep working – I have good benefits where I work and I don’t want to use my 401K to pay for insurance. One could make a house payment out of the insurance rates out there today. This sounds like a good one for another rant but I won’t get into that now.
We have some rain moving north of Allegan to Muskegon at 7am – A weak cold front will pass through the area today from south to north with an area of showers and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms. Behind that front high pressure moves over the area and only slowly moves eastward, so it will impact our weather into Thursday. Beyond that system tries to develop over the central plains and moves into the Great Lakes by Friday. This will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the area. Afternoon high temperatures and overnight lows will warm some each day into mid week.
Looking at the long range GFS models I am not seeing any real hot air through the 23rd – no 90s through the period and less than 1.5 inches of rain.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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There is an area of showers moving into Southwest Michigan this morning. These showers are assoicated with weak cold front and assoicated upper jet feature moving through the area. There is just enough mid level moisture to allow the showers. There is also just enough cape this afternoon (due to heating) to allow for a few thunderstorms. This goes along with the SPC SREF 3 hour thunderstorm probabilities too.
I do not expect severe storms from this event and most rainfall amounts (for those who even see rain) will be less than a tenth of inch in most cases. Behind the front is much drier air so dew points could fall into the upper 40s over northern areas of the CWA by mid to late afternoon. Skies should clear tonight, some patchy fog is not out of the question but I do not expect any wide spread fog.
Tomorrow we have warm advection from the surface through at least 700 mb from the northwest. So that should result in low relative humidity and few clouds. It will be warmer too with highs reaching to around 80 once again. Not much change for Wednesday as the surface high only slowly moves to the east. The upper jet remains south of Michigan so we will not get overly warm but highs in the lower 80s seems likely by then. .
Much of the long term is looking to be unsettled in nature with a chance of showers/storms each day. These chances of rain will not be widespread rains for the most part, and much of the period will actually be dry. We are looking at a potentially less wet weekend for next weekend.
The chance of rain will begin on Thursday, fairly close to previous thinking. The difference will be that the chance of rain looks a little better. This is the result of a better defined lead short wave approaching at that time as the long wave trough re-establishes itself. This short wave will keep a decent shot of showers/storms into Friday across the area.
Additional chances of rain will then remain possible Fri through Sun. The long wave trough is expected to hold over the area, sending occasional short waves through the area. This is a bit different than the past few days where it looked like a more organized low would bring widespread rains to the area. The NW flow aloft will keep temperatures in check a bit with the summer-like warmth remaining bottled up well south of the area.