The first graphic is an amazing albeit horrifying comparison of the seasonal rainfall in the U.P. and the rainfall of Harvey in Houston thus far. The second image is the predicted (NAM) rainfall totals through Thursday.
This is the Futurecast for the same area through Thursday and the precipitable water being pulled in from the gulf.
There is the potential for catastrophic flooding over the next several days as Tropical Storm Harvey moves inland and slowly over southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall totals of 15-25 inches are likely with isolated amounts higher through mid next week.
For Southwest Michigan: A slow moving low pressure system will track through Lower Michigan over the next couple of days. This system will lead to mostly cloudy conditions along with some showers and even a few thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the 70s with lows around 60 degrees.
Radar trends support increasing the POPs today. Showers were lifting northward out of Indiana. These should move in over the Kalamazoo to Jackson region by 800 am. Lakeshore regions were also seeing more in the way showers early this morning.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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The main challenge in the short term deals with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The mid level low centered over Wisconsin early this morning will track slowly southeast over the next couple of days. Here in Southwest Lower MI…the combination of mid level cooling along with low level warming and moistening will support an unstable atmosphere.
While the system will be weakening overall…the combination of moisture lift and instability will allow for shower and even a few thunderstorms through Tuesday. Initially the instability plots did not support thunderstorms here in our CWA…but the lightning plots do show a few storms north of Muskegon at this time. So the atmosphere is more supportive of convection than the modeled forecasts.
For that reason will feature mostly scattered showers today with isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The clouds over the next couple of days will likely hold back the high temperatures a few degrees. Values will most likely end up in the 70s. On Wednesday with more in the way of sunshine…values could get close to 80 degrees. .
A consensus of latest 00z medium range guidance continues to suggest that a cold front will bring a chance of showers Wednesday night into early Thursday. Canadian high pressure will then build in to bring fair and cooler weather Thursday through Saturday.
High temperatures Thursday and Friday will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with low temperatures mainly in the 40`s to around 50 degrees. Southwest return flow on the back side of the departing ridge will allow temperatures to moderate Saturday. Along with the southwest flow will come an increase in moisture and the next low pressure system will bring a chance of showers Saturday night through Sunday.
A consensus of latest medium range guidance suggests that showers tied to the remnants of the former tropical system should stay south to southeast of our fcst area this weekend.