We are unsettled about the weather this week, mother nature will do what she will do and it can be sometimes unsettling to us. We have been in a wet pattern the past couple day of off and on showers and storms but not the good soaking rains we need.
This week we begin our longest period of daylight – Summer solstice begins on Wednesday.
The feature image is an unsettling cloud formation. Below are the rainfall totals for the past seven days and for the weekend.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today and Tuesday as cooler air filters into the region. Otherwise, partly sunny conditions will hold for many areas. After a dry day Wednesday, thunderstorms may move into the region Wednesday night through Thursday night. Another possibility for storms exists late in the weekend.
With the rain this week we should be rising to above normal for the month which will have the farmers celebrating in the fields for a good start to their crops.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
This feature has auto location.
(click images to enlarge)
Primary focus is on coverage of any showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. The H500 shortwave trough will move through during peak heating today as surface based CAPE climbs to 1000 J/kg with essentially no CIN. There is also a reasonable amount of instability in the -10C to -20C layer should any convection develop.
A sampling of RAP bufkit soundings show decent moisture availability from the LCL (2500 ft) to about 30k ft. This is also reflected in GFS and ECMWF deep layer RH values of around 80% this afternoon. An assessment of the HRRR/HRRRX, NAM 3km, and WRF-ARW reveals a common thread with convective development.
The most likely time frame for development is after 16Z and lasting into late evening. Convection should be scattered in nature east of US 131 with little if any activity near and west during the day. With westerly H850 winds and sfc winds, there may be a protective lake shadow in place. However, additional storms in eastern WI may survive the trip over the lake in time for a late evening arrival along the lakeshore, especially north of Muskegon.
For Tuesday, much less sfc based instability will be present as well as less deep layer RH. That said, a 50-60 kt mid level jet core in association with a secondary H500 trough will be coming through mid afternoon. Any showers and storms that can fire in this environment may have potential for gusty winds that mix down. But the main limiting factor to strong storms developing appears to be the general lacking of sfc based instability.
We continue to think that the potential exists for an occasionally active and unsettled weather pattern over the next week. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will be possible at times through next Sunday. The first threats will come beginning Wed night and linger through Fri morning.
We will see upper heights build a bit that will bring a warm front into the area Wed night. This looks to touch off a round of storms with strong moisture transport aimed at Lower MI via a 50 knot low level jet. Another wave will approach Thu night, but may be a little further south as the boundary will likely sink south in the wake of the Wed night/Thu am wave.
We will likely see a break in the action then much of Fri and Sat. We see enough of a ridge in the zonal upper flow and the sfc boundary will sink far enough south to keep the area dry and mild. The break in the active weather looks to come to an end by Sat night. Another better organized upper wave comes through the zonal flow aloft. This will bring another low level jet through the area, resulting in another wave of storms.