Cooler and mainly dry weather can be expected through midweek as Canadian high pressure builds south into the western Great Lakes Region. Breezy conditions can be expected today and Tuesday due to a low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will moderate a bit toward the end of the week.
Looking at the long range models we have a better than 70% chance of above normal temperatures coming beginning late in the week through mid month. Rain should be normal to slightly above. So far in the Otsego/Plainwell area we have had only .09 inches of rain over the past 10 days.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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Low clouds are becoming more widespread early this morning as cooler air mass oozes south via north-northeast winds. the band of showers over central lk MI and nrn lwr MI is expected to continue weakening in the short term but may bring some light showers to areas near/north of U.S. 10 this morning.
Short term stratus trends are difficult, but based on low level RH progs it looks like we will have mostly cloudy skies this morning, with highest confidence east of highway 131 and near/north of I-96. The stratus should gradually lift to a cumulus deck and develop some breaks, so more in the way of sunshine developing this afternoon.
Some isolated showers may develop during peak heating east of highway 131 as the upper low and cold pool drop south down Lake Huron. Main impacts from the upper low ovr the eastern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday will be over the eastern parts of lwr Michigan.
Clouds should be more extensive around LAN/JXN with cooler high temperatures while areas west of Highway 131 should be partly sunny to mostly sunny and a bit warmer.
On Wednesday the surface ridge builds in from the northwest and this should lead to less cloudiness and slightly warmer high temps area wide. .
There is really only one period of note with regards to the weather in the long term, Thu night through Fri evening when rain will be possible. Otherwise, quiet weather with seasonable temps expected before the rain. Warm temps and dry weather expected after the rain chances.
No matter how the upper low wobbles between today and Wednesday, there is good confidence that dry weather will be expected Wed night through Thursday. This will be because the upper low gets pushed out by the upper ridge and the next short wave upstream of the area.
Temperatures will recover to near average levels with sunshine returning and temps aloft warming some with the low moving out. We continue to expect that rain chances will increase overnight Thu night and linger into Fri evening. The short wave will dive SE over the area, but will be slowed up by the slowly departing upper low to our east.
This is what will keep the rain chances in through Friday evening. Rain amounts do not look to be heavy with a lack of a Gulf feed into the system. The slow progress of the system will help amounts a little bit though. We then expect a dry period for most of, if not all of next weekend, along with warming temperatures.
The upper trough axis will be east of the area, and upper ridging will be building over the area. Building heights and warm air advecting in on southerly flow will support the warming temps. Highs should be well into the 80s by next Sunday. The upper ridge is also expected to cap off any chances of rain.