Seems most of the fun weather this summer has been after I go to bed (10pm) – The graphic to the right is a screen capture from my web data of the rain which moved through early this morning. I didn’t think we would be getting much rain in Allegan County last night until the rain woke me up after 1am.
We received 1.37 inches in a little over an hour. This brings us up to 33.45 inches of rain for the year, 2.67 for the month and 13.38 inches for the summer.
We have had almost as much rain thus far in August as we had in the whole month of July.
My weather station puts out a lot of nice charts and data which are uploaded to the cloud every few minutes. The data is also uploaded to Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMIOTSEG6).
I would like to have a Davis weather station, I have gone through two Accurites over the past 6 years or so. The fan in my station which is run by solar cells hasn’t functioned properly this summer so the high temperatures have been reading well above what is actually right. Luckily I have a small unit without the anemometer on my deck in the shade which give the correct temperature readings. You can see my station in the feature image mounted on the post (also in the right side bar from the hi-def camera I have mounted about 20 feet away on my deck). I am thinking of swiveling the camera around on the 21st to see if I can capture the eclipse.
The Davis systems are more pricey (you can put out several hundred dollars for a complete weather station) but they are highly rated for durability and accuracy.
Below is a screen shot I took at 7am of current conditions at the station (from the cloud)
Scattered showers and storms will remain possible today across Southwest Lower Michigan along and ahead of a cold front. The front should press east of the area during the afternoon hours ending the threat of rain towards Lansing and Jackson towards early evening. Dry weather is then expected over the weekend as high pressure gradually works in from the west. Highs will be a bit cooler than normal for this time of year with 70s expected for highs today, Saturday and Sunday.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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Main concern in the short term period pertains to chances for showers and storms today. Cold front at 300am stretches from Northern Lake Michigan across portions of Southern Wisconsin into Eastern Iowa. The front will progress to the east through the course of the day, moving through the eastern portion of our forecast area towards Lansing and Jackson between 18z and 22z. It is during this time frame when I feel the best chances for redevelopment will occur.
Moisture will remain ahead of the front with surface dew points in the mid 60s. NAM is probably overdone in its instability, but we may be able to build CAPE values into the 1000-2000 j/kg range once again at max heating. The NAMnest and the HRRRx are not bullish on additional showers/storms this afternoon, so went with consensus which is isolated to scattered pops in the east this afternoon.
Deep layer shear values are below 30 knots this afternoon so not expected severe weather. Expecting dry weather the remainder of the short term as high pressure gradually builds into the Great Lakes region. Partly cloudy skies will trend towards mostly clear as we head from tonight into the weekend. .
We gradually work out of a blocking pattern into next week. The main impact to this change will be temps returning to above normal levels by Wed/Thu. The upper low that will be parked over Eastern Canada will finally move east toward the middle of next week. This will bring weak upper ridging to the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Until then the northwest flow will keep the region near to slightly below normal on Monday and Tuesday, with above normal temps developing under the ridge into Wed and Thu.
This pattern supports an overall dry regime. We will have to watch for isolated showers/storms Sunday night and Monday with a short wave passing through, but most areas stay dry. Then a more progressive pattern takes shape for the latter portion of the week. A cold front may reach the Upper Midwest by Wed night and Thu and another chance of mainly isolated showers and storms could move in.