Getting a bit dry in southern Michigan, we have an elevated fire danger until the rain possibilities increase on Saturday. The farmers around here have their corn and soybeans in the ground and they are trying to come up. The nice thing about the new hybrids is when the rain does hit them they grow in bursts and bounds.
My wife and I have been watering (her more than me). I am not as keen on a green lawn as I used to be (hate having to mow twice a week). I used to have a lawn a greens keeper would be proud of.
High pressure will provide pleasant weather today and tomorrow with sunshine, highs in the 70s, and low humidity. Low pressure and a warm front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
This feature has auto location.
(click images to enlarge)
Forecast soundings today and Friday show deep dry adiabatic lapse rates mixing down some very dry air in the afternoon. Have therefore lowered sfc dew pts and RHs. Typically high temperatures over perform in dry air masses such as this, so have also bumped up high temperatures a few degrees.
Models suggest a few showers impacting northeast Lower MI tonight as a shortwave pivots around the Quebec upper low. Have maintained low pops late tonight north and east of a Ludington to Alma line, but considering the dry air mass it may just be a few sprinkles if anything at all.
Attention in later periods turns to the warm front approaching from the west. This feature has some difficulty advancing into the area as shearing northwest flow aloft persists on the periphery of the Quebec upper low. It really takes until Saturday afternoon for better shower/tstm potential to arrive when higher theta-e air pushes in from the southwest and MU Capes rise above 1000 J/KG. .
Saturday through Monday looks like our best chance of rain. A clipper-like system is progd to move across the UP Saturday night. Ahead of the low, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the warm advection pattern. The ecmwf also shows a strong short wave behind the sfc low. Shear values increase a bit Saturday night to 35 knots which is enough to get some organization going.
Not too impressed with precipitable water values, though, so flooding concerns may be kept in check. After the low moves by Sunday, another shot of cooler and drier air will follow and highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s and then being rising to the 70s by the end of the week.