We had a nice soaking rain here at the Coffee Shoppe last night. The worms are out parading and the robins are eating them up. We received 1.74 inches from 8:30 to 10:00pm. I keep rain buckets around the eaves of my house and they are full. I use them to water the veggies I have growing in pots on my deck.
Take the HRRR rainfall forecast with grain of salt – most of the models have had a hard time depicting rain over the area the past couple days.
An upper level low pressure system in the Upper Plains will lift slowly northeast today into Friday. This system will push a cold front through the region today. Thus some more showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
A weak area of high pressure moves in tonight into Friday. This system will support less in the way of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger low pressure system could move in over the weekend resulting in additional showers and thunderstorms. So, hopefully with all these chances of rain we will see our rainfall totals push closer to normal for the month of June.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 18 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
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The main challenge in the short term deals with the risk for showers and thunderstorms today. Overall the potential looks higher than what the models are showing. The same proved to be true yesterday. Most of the models had a hard time with decent rainfall totals.
To start…radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing over south central Lake Michigan. Most models don’t even have these in their output. SPC mesoanalysis does have an axis of moisture and instability in that region. With the cold front off to the west and pushing east…it appears these showers and thunderstorms will push onshore roughly Muskegon…south.
So for many of the southern zones I will feature higher POPs in the forecast for this morning. As for the remainder of the day…with a cold front pushing through…additional showers and thunderstorms are possible. The most favorable location will be further inland where better instability is progged.
The upper level low is shown to generate some mid to upper level lift across this frontal zone. Satellite water vapor imagery does show a decent looking vort max pivoting around the south end of this upper low. This feature is moving into western Minnesota. It is forecasted to track through WI and the U.P. today. It could enhance the lift somewhat here in lower Michigan. Thus it could end up more active than currently advertised this afternoon. Deep layer shear does increase this afternoon. Thus we will need to monitor trends closely…especially as the models are not handling the current setup very well. .
The upper pattern will transition from zonal flow to a Great Lakes trough over the weekend. There looks to be two main opportunities for rainfall…Saturday night and Tuesday. The evolution of the upper trough as it moves over the Great Lakes will determine just how much rain we see this weekend.
The ecmwf and gfs are a bit different tonight in that the ecmwf is farther south with the sfc low compared to the gfs. Thus the ecmwf shows more pcpn over the cwa Saturday night. Both models show decent short waves rotating through the flow Saturday night and Sunday, but the gfs is not as compact and farther north. For now we`ll keep likely pops Saturday night.
Cooler air will flow south from Canada early next week as the upper trough moves overhead. That will result in highs in the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday and upper 70s Wednesday. Lows will fall into the 50s during this time. Temps will warm as the trough moves east and that will also bring our next opportunity for rain as a warm front moves through the cwa Tuesday.