The latest forecast from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) has Irma traveling right over Florida then into Georgia – this is definitely bad news. The GFS models show Irma (currently a cat 4 as of 5am this morning) hitting southern Florida full force then rapidly weaken as it travels northward. The NAM shows it hitting southern Florida then traveling up the coast towards the Carolina’s. Regardless, this means our friends in Florida should get the heck out of there. My wife has two uncles who live down there – one has come back to Michigan…
This is the current warning information for south Florida:
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Homestead - Kendall Lakes - Country Walk - Redlands - Everglades National Park * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 90-110 mph with gusts to 140 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday afternoon until early Monday morning - Window for Hurricane force winds: early Sunday morning until Sunday evening - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts to secure properties should now be brought to completion. - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-6 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins early Saturday evening - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for dangerous storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. - To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of significant storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation efforts should now be underway. - Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in serious injury or loss of life. Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-14 inches, with locally higher amounts - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous assessment. - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for major flooding where peak rainfall totals well exceed amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation. Rescues and emergency evacuations are likely. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of extensive flooding rain impacts. - Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher ground before flood waters arrive. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets, parking lots and underpasses become submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable threat for isolated tornadoes. - To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado impacts. - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly if a tornado approaches. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
For SW Michigan: Low pressure will move out today and be replaced by high pressure which will sit over the area for several days. Scattered showers will end this morning then a lengthy stretch of nice weather can be expected into next week. Temperatures will recover to near normal this weekend and to above normal next week.
HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm
Day and Week Planner
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Persistent upper trough finally begins lifting out today with final batch of showers impacting mainly the southwest corner of lower MI this morning. Another area of showers will impact northeast lwr MI and the thumb region today and a few may come close to clipping Clare/Mt Pleasant, but left these areas dry. Otherwise a decreasing cloud pattern developing today then clear to partly cloudy through the weekend.
Despite the arrival of the sfc ridge, we could still see a decent amount of diurnal cumulus today and possibly Saturday as well. H8 temps stay fairly chilly (3-5C) through 00Z Sunday. These cooler temps aloft coupled with northeast/east low level flow should create a sct-bkn afternoon cumulus field, especially east of Hwy 131.
Some patchy frost is possible tonight and Saturday night north of Big Rapids where lows should dip into the mid to upper 30s. We could also be dealing with some pockets of fog, locally dense, early this morning and again late tonight. .
We are looking at a potential entirely dry long term period that spans from Sun night through at least next Thu. In addition to being dry, temperatures look like they will recover from the current cool conditions, to around average to a little above average by mid week with highs warming well into the 70s.
The extended dry and increasingly mild period will be the result of ridging that will become established over the area. This ridge will already be established over the area by the beginning of the long term. It will hold over the area as it gets squeezed by upper lows to our north and east, and the remnants of Irma to our south. This is a very blocky type of pattern, and our area will be under the portion of it with nice weather.