Yikes!!!

Yikes!!!

posted in: irma, Weather Forecast | 4

The latest forecast from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) has Irma traveling right over Florida then into Georgia – this is definitely bad news.  The GFS models show Irma (currently a cat 4 as of 5am this morning) hitting southern Florida full force then rapidly weaken as it travels northward.  The NAM shows it hitting southern Florida then traveling up the coast towards the Carolina’s.  Regardless, this means our friends in Florida should get the heck out of there.  My wife has two uncles who live down there – one has come back to Michigan…

GFS - Wind Speeds
GFS – Wind Speeds
NAM Wind Speeds
NAM Wind Speeds

This is the current warning information for south Florida:

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... 
 
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... 
 
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED 
- Homestead 
- Kendall Lakes 
- Country Walk 
- Redlands 
- Everglades National Park 
 
* WIND 
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind 
- Peak Wind Forecast: 90-110 mph with gusts to 140 mph 
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday afternoon 
until early Monday morning 
- Window for Hurricane force winds: early Sunday morning 
until Sunday evening 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme 
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
previous assessment. 
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for 
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of 
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. 
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of 
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts 
to secure properties should now be brought to completion. 
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible. 
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, 
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe 
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic 
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete 
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile 
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne 
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or 
months. 
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences 
and roadway signs blown over. 
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within 
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, 
and access routes impassable. 
- Widespread power and communications outages. 
 
* STORM SURGE 
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible 
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-6 feet 
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas 
- Window of concern: Begins early Saturday evening 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate 
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous 
assessment. 
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for 
dangerous storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above 
ground. 
- To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of 
significant storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation 
efforts should now be underway. 
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed 
evacuation orders may result in serious injury or loss of 
life. Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. 
Consider voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor 
decisions may needlessly risk lives. 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant 
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated 
by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the 
coast. 
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads 
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually 
vulnerable low spots. 
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong 
and numerous rip currents. 
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. 
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially 
in unprotected anchorages. 
 
* FLOODING RAIN 
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-14 inches, with 
locally higher amounts 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High 
- The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous 
assessment. 
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for 
major flooding where peak rainfall totals well exceed 
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation. 
Rescues and emergency evacuations are likely. 
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of 
extensive flooding rain impacts. 
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take 
action may result in serious injury or significant loss of 
life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued, 
heed recommended actions. Poor decisions may result in 
being cut off or needlessly risk lives. If vulnerable, 
relocate to safe shelter on higher ground before flood 
waters arrive. 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive 
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and 
rescues. 
- Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in 
multiple places. Flood control systems and barriers may 
become stressed. 
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple 
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or 
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover 
escape routes. Streets, parking lots and underpasses become 
submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road 
and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. 
 
* TORNADO 
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated 
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the 
previous assessment. 
- When implementing emergency plans, include a reasonable 
threat for isolated tornadoes. 
- To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited tornado 
impacts. 
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to 
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches. 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited 
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the 
execution of emergency plans during tropical events. 
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with 
power and communications disruptions. 
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile 
homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops 
and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked 
over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
pulled from moorings.

 


For SW Michigan: Low pressure will move out today and be replaced by high pressure which will sit over the area for several days. Scattered showers will end this morning then a lengthy stretch of nice weather can be expected into next week. Temperatures will recover to near normal this weekend and to above normal next week.

Forecast Maps

HRRR and Futurecast models runs are for 12 hours beginning at 7am – a second model run begins at 3pm

 






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Wind Gusts

SHORT TERM…

Persistent upper trough finally begins lifting out today with final batch of showers impacting mainly the southwest corner of lower MI this morning. Another area of showers will impact northeast lwr MI and the thumb region today and a few may come close to clipping Clare/Mt Pleasant, but left these areas dry. Otherwise a decreasing cloud pattern developing today then clear to partly cloudy through the weekend.

Despite the arrival of the sfc ridge, we could still see a decent amount of diurnal cumulus today and possibly Saturday as well. H8 temps stay fairly chilly (3-5C) through 00Z Sunday. These cooler temps aloft coupled with northeast/east low level flow should create a sct-bkn afternoon cumulus field, especially east of Hwy 131.

Some patchy frost is possible tonight and Saturday night north of Big Rapids where lows should dip into the mid to upper 30s. We could also be dealing with some pockets of fog, locally dense, early this morning and again late tonight. .

LONG TERM…

We are looking at a potential entirely dry long term period that spans from Sun night through at least next Thu. In addition to being dry, temperatures look like they will recover from the current cool conditions, to around average to a little above average by mid week with highs warming well into the 70s.

The extended dry and increasingly mild period will be the result of ridging that will become established over the area. This ridge will already be established over the area by the beginning of the long term. It will hold over the area as it gets squeezed by upper lows to our north and east, and the remnants of Irma to our south. This is a very blocky type of pattern, and our area will be under the portion of it with nice weather.


4 on "Yikes!!!"

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ROCKY (Rockford)

Once again give me cold and snow over heat, humidity and hurricanes! Never would I live in Florida!!!

Anonymous
I mentioned this on the last thread – my niece lives in Winter Park near Orlando. She got outta Dodge and headed up to Atlanta to stay with friends. It took her 11 hours to get there, which normally takes 6 hours. I have a friend down there. He has… Read more »
Gun Lake Deb
Yesterday, I read a great post on Facebook from a woman who is planning to remain in her home on Merritt Island, despite evacuation orders by 3 PM today. Like she said – she’s caught between a rock and a hard place – if she evacuates, she has nowhere to… Read more »
Jack Edwards

Latest Forecast = in 21 minutes, the Aurora will be at STORM LEVEL!

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